Relationships between meteorological parameters between Arctic and the Baltic Sea regions were investigated using NCEP-CFSR reanalysis for 1979–2015. The Greenland and Baffin Bay regions climate have the most significant teleconnections with the Baltic Sea region temperature, specific humidity and wind speed. These relationships can be explained by the AO/NAO index variability only in winter. The results are valuable for selecting Arctic regions with the largest effect on the Baltic Sea region. Hide

Southern part of Pakistan (Sindh province) is exposed to frequent and intense temperature extremes recently, and is highly vulnerable to their impacts due to lack of information on recurrence of extremes. In this paper for the first time we estimated the return levels of daily maximum temperatures and daily maximum wet-bulb temperatures over the different return periods in Sindh, which would help the local administrations to prioritize the regions in terms of adaptations. Hide

We present the results of a set of climate simulations designed to simulate futures in which the Earth's temperature is stabilized at the levels referred to in the 2015 Paris Agreement. We consider the necessary future emissions reductions and the aspects of extreme weather which differ significantly between the 2 degree and the 1.5 degree climate in the simulations. Hide

We analyze the dynamical and statistical properties of two surface air temperature (SAT) reanalysis datasets. For each SAT time-series we analyze i) the distance between the lagged SAT time series and the insolation, and ii) the Shannon entropy computed from the probability distribution function (pdf) of SAT values. We show that these simple measures uncover meaningful long-range coherent spatial structures that emerge from the local properties of SAT time-series. Hide

The globalisation of water resources via food trade has made the management of water resources highly complex. However, we lack decision tools that capture this complexity. We present a framework that outlines how we can capture complex cross-scale feedbacks that determine water use in our globalised world. The framework unifies and extends existing approaches and captures the important role that cities and trade infrastructure play in driving water resource use. Hide

We statistically analysed the mechanisms of the variability of decadal sea-level trends for the whole Baltic Sea basin over the last century. We used two different sea-level data sets and several climatic data sets. The results of this study showed that precipitation has a lagged effect on decadal sea-level trend variations from which the signature of atmospheric effect is removed. This detected underlying factor is not connected to oceanic forcing driven from the North Atlantic region. Hide

Nitrogen input in natural ecosystems usually has a positive effect on plant growth. However, too much N causes N leaching, which contributes to water pollution. Using a global model we estimated that N leaching from natural lands has increased by 73 % during the 20th century, mainly due to rising N deposition from the atmosphere caused by emissions from fossil fuels and agriculture. Climate change and increasing CO₂ concentration had positive and negative effects (respectively) on N leaching. Hide

Flood is the main natural disaster in Brazil, causing substantial economic damage and losses of lives. Here we seek to better understand the flood generating mechanisms in the flood prone Parana River Basin, including large scale patterns of the ocean and atmospheric circulation. This study provides new insights for understanding causes of floods in the region and around the world and are a step forward to improve flood risk management, statistical assessments and short-term flood forecasts. Hide

The lagged responses of the Earth’s climate system, as part of cosmic-solar-terrestrial processes, are empirically modeled with a consequent estimation of a lag of ~1600-yr for the recently detected ~9500-yr scale solar recurrent patterns. Several examples of this kind of lag, both in forcing (Volcanoes & CO₂), tropical climate and ocean processes throughout the Holocene, were analyzed. The results suggest that the recent CO₂ increase can be considered as a lagged response to solar activity. Hide

The CoCEB model is used to evaluate hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement. While many studies in the literature treat abatement costs as an unproductive loss of income, we show that mitigation costs do slow down economic growth over the next few decades, but only up to the mid-21st century or even earlier; growth reduction is compensated later on by having avoided climate negative impacts. Hide

Seasonal forecast is a scientific challenge drawing increase attention of both the scientific community and the decision makers. The manuscript deals with evaluation of seasonal forecasts skill taking into account the rapid changes in both climate and socio-economic development. An attempt to give a solution to overcome rapid changes may provide local stakeholders with a new way of using seasonal forecast. Hide