This study uses a global climate model to explore the extent to which sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the ocean is reversible if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) declines. It is found that sea level continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO₂ starts to decline and does not return to the pre-industrial level for over thousand years after atmospheric CO₂ is restored to the pre-industrial concentration. Hide

Relationships between meteorological parameters between Arctic and the Baltic Sea regions were investigated using NCEP-CFSR reanalysis for 1979–2015. The Greenland and Baffin Bay regions climate have the most significant teleconnections with the Baltic Sea region temperature, specific humidity and wind speed. These relationships can be explained by the AO/NAO index variability only in winter. The results are valuable for selecting Arctic regions with the largest effect on the Baltic Sea region. Hide

Southern part of Pakistan (Sindh province) is exposed to frequent and intense temperature extremes recently, and is highly vulnerable to their impacts due to lack of information on recurrence of extremes. In this paper for the first time we estimated the return levels of daily maximum temperatures and daily maximum wet-bulb temperatures over the different return periods in Sindh, which would help the local administrations to prioritize the regions in terms of adaptations. Hide

Behaviors of terrestrial ecosystems differ in different El Niño events. We analyze terrestrial carbon cycle responses to the recent 2015–16 and earlier 1997–98 El Ninos, and find large differences. We find that global land-atmosphere C flux anomaly was about two times smaller in 2015–16 than in 1997–98 event, without the obvious lagged response. Then we illustrate the mechanisms of the different terrestrial carbon cycle responses in 2015–16 and 1997–98 El Ninos in regional biological processes. Hide

We analyze the dynamical and statistical properties of two surface air temperature (SAT) reanalysis datasets. For each SAT time-series we analyze i) the distance between the lagged SAT time series and the insolation, and ii) the Shannon entropy computed from the probability distribution function (pdf) of SAT values. We show that these simple measures uncover meaningful long-range coherent spatial structures that emerge from the local properties of SAT time-series. Hide

Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. We statistically assess here the response of precipitation and water availability to global temperature change, allowing us to estimate the significance of drying/wetting tendencies globally. We further show that opting for the 1.5K-target just slightly influences mean changes, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extremes changes. Hide

The globalisation of water resources via food trade has made the management of water resources highly complex. However, we lack decision tools that capture this complexity. We present a framework that outlines how we can capture complex cross-scale feedbacks that determine water use in our globalised world. The framework unifies and extends existing approaches and captures the important role that cities and trade infrastructure play in driving water resource use. Hide

We statistically analysed the mechanisms of the variability of decadal sea-level trends for the whole Baltic Sea basin over the last century. We used two different sea-level data sets and several climatic data sets. The results of this study showed that precipitation has a lagged effect on decadal sea-level trend variations from which the signature of atmospheric effect is removed. This detected underlying factor is not connected to oceanic forcing driven from the North Atlantic region. Hide

Nitrogen input in natural ecosystems usually has a positive effect on plant growth. However, too much N causes N leaching, which contributes to water pollution. Using a global model we estimated that N leaching from natural lands has increased by 73 % during the 20th century, mainly due to rising N deposition from the atmosphere caused by emissions from fossil fuels and agriculture. Climate change and increasing CO₂ concentration had positive and negative effects (respectively) on N leaching. Hide

Flood is the main natural disaster in Brazil, causing substantial economic damage and losses of lives. Here we seek to better understand the flood generating mechanisms in the flood prone Parana River Basin, including large scale patterns of the ocean and atmospheric circulation. This study provides new insights for understanding causes of floods in the region and around the world and are a step forward to improve flood risk management, statistical assessments and short-term flood forecasts. Hide

Computer simulations show that during an ice age a strong atmospheric CO₂ increase would have resulted in a stronger carbon uptake of the continents than today. Causes are the larger potential of glacial vegetation to increase its photosynthetic efficiency under increasing CO₂ and the much less carbon stored in extratropical soils during an ice age that can be released under greenhouse warming. Hence, for different climates the Earth system is differently sensitive to carbon cycle perturbations. Hide

This paper analizes the origin of the moisture in two extremely important Atmospheric River (and extreme precipitation) events. The distribution of the moisture with regard to the low-level jet is analized as well, and the classic association of the Atmospheric River to the former is discussed. Hide

The CoCEB model is used to evaluate hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement. While many studies in the literature treat abatement costs as an unproductive loss of income, we show that mitigation costs do slow down economic growth over the next few decades, but only up to the mid-21st century or even earlier; growth reduction is compensated later on by having avoided climate negative impacts. Hide

Seasonal forecast is a scientific challenge drawing increase attention of both the scientific community and the decision makers. The manuscript deals with evaluation of seasonal forecasts skill taking into account the rapid changes in both climate and socio-economic development. An attempt to give a solution to overcome rapid changes may provide local stakeholders with a new way of using seasonal forecast. Hide