Journal cover Journal topic
Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.351 IF 4.351
  • IF 5-year value: 5.124 IF 5-year
    5.124
  • CiteScore value: 4.44 CiteScore
    4.44
  • SNIP value: 1.250 SNIP 1.250
  • IPP value: 4.10 IPP 4.10
  • SJR value: 2.203 SJR 2.203
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 29 Scimago H
    index 29
  • h5-index value: 31 h5-index 31
ESD | Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999–1012, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999–1012, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 15 Aug 2018

Research article | 15 Aug 2018

A mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraints

Femke J. M. M. Nijsse and Henk A. Dijkstra
Related authors  
ESD Reviews: Thermodynamic optimality in Earth sciences. The missing constraints in modeling Earth system dynamics?
Martijn Westhoff, Axel Kleidon, Stan Schymanski, Benjamin Dewals, Femke Nijsse, Maik Renner, Henk Dijkstra, Hisashi Ozawa, Hubert Savenije, Han Dolman, Antoon Meesters, and Erwin Zehe
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-6,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-6, 2019
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Related subject area  
Earth system change: climate prediction
Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, 2019
Short summary
September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach
Monica Ionita, Klaus Grosfeld, Patrick Scholz, Renate Treffeisen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, 2019
Short summary
ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing
Gab Abramowitz, Nadja Herger, Ethan Gutmann, Dorit Hammerling, Reto Knutti, Martin Leduc, Ruth Lorenz, Robert Pincus, and Gavin A. Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, 2019
Short summary
Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake
Nicole S. Lovenduski, Stephen G. Yeager, Keith Lindsay, and Matthew C. Long
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 45–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019, 2019
Short summary
Seasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 models
Bo Huang, Ulrich Cubasch, and Christopher Kadow
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 985–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018, 2018
Short summary
Cited articles  
Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092, 2002. a
Boe, J., Hall, A., and Qu, X.: September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100, Nat. Geosci., 2, 341–343, 2009. a
Bracegirdle, T. J. and Stephenson, D. B.: On the Robustness of Emergent Constraints Used in Multimodel Climate Change Projections of Arctic Warming, J. Climate, 26, 669–678, 2013. a, b, c, d
Budyko, M. I.: The effect of solar variations on the climate of the Earth, Tellus, 7, 611–619, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00466.x, 1969. a
Caldwell, P. M., Bretherton, C. S., Zelinka, M. D., Klein, S. A., Santer, B. D., and Sanderson, B. M.: Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1803–1808, 2014. a
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate change. The technique of emergent constraints uses observations of current climate to improve those predictions, using relationships between different climate models. Our paper first classifies the different uses of the technique, and continues with proposing a mathematical justification for their use. We also highlight when the application of emergent constraints might give biased predictions.
State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate...
Citation