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ESD | Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999–1012, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999–1012, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 15 Aug 2018

Research article | 15 Aug 2018

A mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraints

Femke J. M. M. Nijsse and Henk A. Dijkstra

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Cited articles

Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092, 2002. a
Boe, J., Hall, A., and Qu, X.: September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100, Nat. Geosci., 2, 341–343, 2009. a
Bracegirdle, T. J. and Stephenson, D. B.: On the Robustness of Emergent Constraints Used in Multimodel Climate Change Projections of Arctic Warming, J. Climate, 26, 669–678, 2013. a, b, c, d
Budyko, M. I.: The effect of solar variations on the climate of the Earth, Tellus, 7, 611–619, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00466.x, 1969. a
Caldwell, P. M., Bretherton, C. S., Zelinka, M. D., Klein, S. A., Santer, B. D., and Sanderson, B. M.: Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1803–1808, 2014. a
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State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate change. The technique of emergent constraints uses observations of current climate to improve those predictions, using relationships between different climate models. Our paper first classifies the different uses of the technique, and continues with proposing a mathematical justification for their use. We also highlight when the application of emergent constraints might give biased predictions.
State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate...
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