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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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ESD | Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999-1012, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999-1012, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 15 Aug 2018

Research article | 15 Aug 2018

A mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraints

Femke J. M. M. Nijsse and Henk A. Dijkstra
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AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (12 Jul 2018) by Andrey Gritsun
AR by Femke J. M. M. Nijsse on behalf of the Authors (20 Jul 2018)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (31 Jul 2018) by Andrey Gritsun
Publications Copernicus
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Short summary
State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate change. The technique of emergent constraints uses observations of current climate to improve those predictions, using relationships between different climate models. Our paper first classifies the different uses of the technique, and continues with proposing a mathematical justification for their use. We also highlight when the application of emergent constraints might give biased predictions.
State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate...
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