Journal cover Journal topic
Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.351 IF 4.351
  • IF 5-year value: 5.124 IF 5-year
    5.124
  • CiteScore value: 4.44 CiteScore
    4.44
  • SNIP value: 1.250 SNIP 1.250
  • IPP value: 4.10 IPP 4.10
  • SJR value: 2.203 SJR 2.203
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 29 Scimago H
    index 29
  • h5-index value: 31 h5-index 31
Volume 9, issue 3
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 969–983, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-969-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 969–983, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-969-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 23 Jul 2018

Research article | 23 Jul 2018

Using network theory and machine learning to predict El Niño

Peter D. Nooteboom et al.
Related authors  
Phase Synchronisation in the Kuroshio Current System
Ann Kristin Klose, René M. van Westen, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2019-96,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2019-96, 2019
Manuscript under review for OS
Seasonal and regional variations of sinking in the subpolar North Atlantic from a high-resolution ocean model
Juan-Manuel Sayol, Henk Dijkstra, and Caroline Katsman
Ocean Sci., 15, 1033–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1033-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1033-2019, 2019
Short summary
Complementing CO2 emission reduction by solar radiation management might strongly enhance future welfare
Koen G. Helwegen, Claudia E. Wieners, Jason E. Frank, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 453–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-453-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-453-2019, 2019
Short summary
The Impact of Upwelling on the Intensification of Anticyclonic Ocean Eddies in the Caribbean Sea
Carine G. van der Boog, Julie D. Pietrzak, Henk A. Dijkstra, Nils Brüggemann, René M. van Westen, Rebecca K. James, Tjeerd J. Bouma, Riccardo E. M. Riva, D. Cornelis Slobbe, Roland Klees, Marcel Zijlema, and Caroline A. Katsman
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2019-51,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2019-51, 2019
Revised manuscript under review for OS
Short summary
Numerical Bifurcation Methods applied to Climate Models: Analysis beyond Simulation
Henk A. Dijkstra
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2019-29,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2019-29, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for NPG
Short summary
Related subject area  
Dynamics of the Earth system: models
Downslope windstorms in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec during Tehuantepecer events: a numerical study with WRF high-resolution simulations
Miguel A. Prósper, Ian Sosa Tinoco, Carlos Otero-Casal, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 485–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-485-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-485-2019, 2019
Short summary
A radiative-convective model based on constrained maximum entropy production
Vincent Labarre, Didier Paillard, and Bérengère Dubrulle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 365–378, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-365-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-365-2019, 2019
Short summary
Contributions of climate change and groundwater extraction to soil moisture trends
Longhuan Wang, Zhenghui Xie, Binghao Jia, Jinbo Xie, Yan Wang, Bin Liu, Ruichao Li, and Si Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-26,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-26, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
Short summary
ESD Ideas: Propagation of high-frequency forcing to ice age dynamics
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky, Michel Crucifix, and Dmitry M. Volobuev
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 257–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-257-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-257-2019, 2019
Short summary
Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: predictive skill, added value of regionalization, and ensemble size dependency
Mark Reyers, Hendrik Feldmann, Sebastian Mieruch, Joaquim G. Pinto, Marianne Uhlig, Bodo Ahrens, Barbara Früh, Kameswarrao Modali, Natalie Laube, Julia Moemken, Wolfgang Müller, Gerd Schädler, and Christoph Kottmeier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 171–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019, 2019
Short summary
Cited articles  
Akaike, H.: A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification, IEEE T. Automat. Contr., AC-19, 716–723, https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705, 1974.
Aladag, C. H., Egrioglu, E., and Kadilar, C.: Forecasting nonlinear time series with a hybrid methodology, Appl. Math. Lett., 22, 1467–1470, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aml.2009.02.006, 2009.
Al-Smadi, A. and Al-Zaben, A.: ARMA Model Order Determination Using Edge Detection: A New Perspective, Circuits, Systems Signal Processing, 24, 723–732, 2005.
Berezin, Y., Gozolchiani, A., Guez, O., and Havlin, S.: Stability of Climate Networks with Time, Sci. Rep.-UK, 2, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00666, 2012.
Bergmeir, C. and Benítez, J. M.: On the use of cross-validation for time series predictor evaluation, Inf. Sci. (Ny)., 191, 192–213, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2011.12.028, 2012.
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
The prediction of the El Niño phenomenon, an increased sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific, fascinates people for a long time. El Niño is associated with natural disasters, such as droughts and floods. Current methods can make a reliable prediction of this phenomenon up to 6 months ahead. However, this article presents a method which combines network theory and machine learning which predicts El Niño up to 1 year ahead.
The prediction of the El Niño phenomenon, an increased sea surface temperature in the eastern...
Citation