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ESD | Articles | Volume 9, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 817-828, 2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue: The Earth system at a global warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C

Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 817-828, 2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 13 Jun 2018

Research article | 13 Jun 2018

Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming

Jaime B. Palter et al.
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Cited articles  
Anderson, J. L., Balaji. V., Broccoli, A. J., Cooke, W. F., Delworth, T. L., Dixon, K. W., Donner, L. J., Dunne, K. A., Freidenreich, S. M., Garner, S. T., Gudgel, R. G., Gordon, C. T., Held, I. M., Hemler, R. S., Horowitz, L. W., Klein, S. A., Knutson, T. R., Kushner, P. J., Langenhost, A. R., Cheung, L. N., Liang, Z., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Nath, M. J., Ploshay, J. J., Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J. J., Soden, B. J., Stern, W. F., Thompson, L. A., Wilson, R. J., Wittenberg, A. T., and Wyman, B. L.: The New GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM2-LM2: Evaluation with Prescribed SST Simulations, J. Climate, 17, 4641–4673,, 2004. a
Boucher, O., Halloran, P. R., Burke, E. J., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Jones, C. D., Lowe, J., Ringer, M. A., Robertson, E., and Wu, P.: Reversibility in an Earth System model in response to CO2 concentration changes, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 024013,, 2012. a
Cheng, W., Chiang, J. C. H., and Zhang, D.: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 models: RCP and Historical Simulations, J. Climate, 26, 7187–7197,, 2013. a, b
Cunningham, S. A., Kanzow, T., Rayner, D., Baringer, M. O., Johns, W. E., Marotzke, J., Longworth, H. R., Grant, E. M., Hirschi, J. J.-M., Beal, L. M., Meinen, C. S., and Bryden, H. L.: Temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5 N, Science, 317, 935–938,, 2007. a
Drijfhout, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., and Cimatoribus, A.: Is a Decline of AMOC Causing the Warming Hole above the North Atlantic in Observed and Modeled Warming Patterns?, J. Climate, 25, 8373–8379,, 2012. a
Publications Copernicus
Short summary
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may require carbon removal from the atmosphere. We explore how the climate system differs when we achieve the 1.5 °C limit by rapid emissions reductions versus when we overshoot this limit, hitting 2 °C at mid-century before removing CO2 from the atmosphere. We show that sea level, ocean acidification, regional warming, and ocean circulation are very different under the overshoot pathway at 2100, despite hitting the 1.5 °C target for surface warming.
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may require carbon removal from the atmosphere. We explore how...