Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0&thinsp;°C

Chen, Yi; Zhang, Zhao; Tao, Fulu

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-543-2018

Articles | Volume 9, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-543-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

The Earth system at a global warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-543-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 9, issue 2

Research article

|

18 May 2018

Research article |

| 18 May 2018

Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

Yi Chen, Zhao Zhang, and Fulu Tao

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-543-2018-supplement

Data sets

A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach S. Hempel, K. Frieler, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, and F. Piontek https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) K. Frieler, S. Lange, F. Piontek, C. P. O. Reyer, J. Schewe, L. Warszawski, F. Zhao, L. Chini, S. Denvil, K. Emanuel, T. Geiger, K. Halladay, G. Hurtt, M. Mengel, D. Murakami, S. Ostberg, A. Popp, R. Riva, M. Stevanovic, T. Suzuki, J. Volkholz, E. Burke, P. Ciais, K. Ebi, T. D. Eddy, J. Elliott, E. Galbraith, S. N. Gosling, F. Hattermann, T. Hickler, J. Hinkel, C. Hof, V. Huber, J. J\"{a}germeyr, V. Krysanova, R. Marc\'{e}, H. M\"{u}ller Schmied, I. Mouratiadou, D. Pierson, D. P. Tittensor, R. Vautard, M. van Vliet, M. F. Biber, R. A. Betts, B. L. Bodirsky, D. Deryng, S. Frolking, C. D. Jones, H. K. Lotze, H. Lotze-Campen, R. Sahajpal, K. Thonicke, H. Tian, and Y. Yamagata https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017

EartH2Observe, WFDEI and ERA-Interim data Merged and Bias-corrected for ISIMIP (EWEMBI) S. Lange https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2016.004

Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000 C. Monfreda, N. Ramankutty, and J. A. Foley https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB002947

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Short summary

We evaluated the effects of warming scenarios (1.5 and 2.0˚C) on the production of maize, wheat and rice in China using MCWLA models and four global climate models. Results showed that the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for food security in China. A 2.0˚C warming would lead to larger variability of crop yield but less probability of crop yield decrease than 1.5˚C warming. More attention should be paid to adaptations to the expected increase in extreme event impacts.