Articles | Volume 9, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-479-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-479-2018
Research article
 | 
09 May 2018
Research article |  | 09 May 2018

Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

Sebastian Ostberg, Jacob Schewe, Katelin Childers, and Katja Frieler

Related authors

Biological nitrogen fixation of natural and agricultural vegetation simulated with LPJmL 5.7.9
Stephen Björn Wirth, Johanna Braun, Jens Heinke, Sebastian Ostberg, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Fabian Stenzel, Werner von Bloh, and Christoph Müller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2946,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2946, 2024
Short summary
biospheremetrics v1.0.1: An R package to calculate two complementary terrestrial biosphere integrity indicators: human colonization of the biosphere (BioCol) and risk of ecosystem destabilization (EcoRisk)
Fabian Stenzel, Johanna Braun, Jannes Breier, Karlheinz Erb, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Sarah Matej, Sebastian Ostberg, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Wolfgang Lucht
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2503,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2503, 2023
Short summary
LandInG 1.0: a toolbox to derive input datasets for terrestrial ecosystem modelling at variable resolutions from heterogeneous sources
Sebastian Ostberg, Christoph Müller, Jens Heinke, and Sibyll Schaphoff
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3375–3406, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3375-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3375-2023, 2023
Short summary
LPJmL-Med – Modelling the dynamics of the land-sea nutrient transfer over the Mediterranean region–version 1: Model description and evaluation
Mohamed Ayache, Alberte Bondeau, Rémi Pagès, Nicolas Barrier, Sebastian Ostberg, and Melika Baklouti
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-342,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-342, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China
Xingcai Liu, Wenfeng Liu, Hong Yang, Qiuhong Tang, Martina Flörke, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sebastian Ostberg, Yadu Pokhrel, Yusuke Satoh, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, 2019
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth system interactions with the biosphere: landuse
The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 629–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, 2023
Short summary
The response of the regional longwave radiation balance and climate system in Europe to an idealized afforestation experiment
Marcus Breil, Felix Krawczyk, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 243–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, 2023
Short summary
Comparison of uncertainties in land-use change fluxes from bookkeeping model parameterisation
Ana Bastos, Kerstin Hartung, Tobias B. Nützel, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Richard A. Houghton, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 745–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021, 2021
Short summary
Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
Short summary
Biases in the albedo sensitivity to deforestation in CMIP5 models and their impacts on the associated historical radiative forcing
Quentin Lejeune, Edouard L. Davin, Grégory Duveiller, Bas Crezee, Ronny Meier, Alessandro Cescatti, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1209–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1209-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1209-2020, 2020
Short summary

Cited articles

Blanc, É.: Statistical emulators of maize, rice, soybean and wheat yields from global gridded crop models, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 236, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.12.022, 2017. a
Bondeau, A., Smith, P. C., Zaehle, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W., Gerten, D., Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Reichstein, M., and Smith, B.: Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance, Global Change Biol., 13, 679–706, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01305.x, 2007. a
Brown, M. E. and Kshirsagar, V.: Weather and international price shocks on food prices in the developing world, Global Environ. Change, 35, 31–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.08.003, 2015. a
Challinor, A. J. and Wheeler, T. R.: Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: Processes and uncertainties, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 148, 343–356, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.09.015, 2008. a
Darwin, R. and Kennedy, D.: Economic effects of CO2 fertilization of crops: transforming changes in yield into changes in supply, Environ. Model. Assess., 5, 157–168, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019013712133, 2000. a
Download
Short summary
It has been shown that regional temperature and precipitation changes in future climate change scenarios often scale quasi-linearly with global mean temperature change (∆GMT). We show that an important consequence of these physical climate changes, namely changes in agricultural crop yields, can also be described in terms of ∆GMT to a large extent. This makes it possible to efficiently estimate future crop yield changes for different climate change scenarios without need for complex models.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint