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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 9, issue 1 | Copyright

Special issue: The Earth system at a global warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C

Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 187-195, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 28 Feb 2018

Research article | 28 Feb 2018

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

Michael F. Wehner1, Kevin A. Reed2, Burlen Loring1, Dáithí Stone1, and Harinarayan Krishnan1 Michael F. Wehner et al.
  • 1Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
  • 2State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York 11794, USA

Abstract. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

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The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios using a high-resolution global climate model. We find more frequent and intense tropical cyclones, but a reduction in weaker storms.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change invited the scientific community to...
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