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ESD | Articles | Volume 9, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1279–1281, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue: ESD Ideas

Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1279–1281, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

ESD Ideas 12 Nov 2018

ESD Ideas | 12 Nov 2018

ESD Ideas: The stochastic climate model shows that underestimated Holocene trends and variability represent two sides of the same coin

Gerrit Lohmann
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Cited articles  
Bakker, P., Clark, P. U., Golledge, N. R., Schmittner, A., and Weber, M. E.: Centennial-scale Holocene climate variations amplified by Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge, Nature, 541, 72–76, 2017. 
Berger, A. L.: Long-term variations of daily insolation and Quaternary climatic changes, J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 2362–2367, 1978. 
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, Th., Hewitt, C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Laîné, A., Loutre, M.-F., Marti, O., Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, S. L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.: Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 1: experiments and large-scale features, Clim. Past, 3, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-261-2007, 2007.  
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y: Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 417–424, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012. 
Farrell, B. F. and Ioannou, P.J.: Generalized stability theory. Part I: Autonomous operators, J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2025–2040, 1996. 
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Short summary
Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual model framework. The temperature spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity.
Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared...
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