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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 9, issue 4 | Copyright

Special issue: ESD Ideas

Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1279-1281, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

ESD Ideas 12 Nov 2018

ESD Ideas | 12 Nov 2018

ESD Ideas: The stochastic climate model shows that underestimated Holocene trends and variability represent two sides of the same coin

Gerrit Lohmann Gerrit Lohmann
  • 1Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
  • 2MARUM and Physics Department, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

Abstract. Holocene sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the local trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual framework of the stochastic climate model. The relation is a consequence of the fluctuation–dissipation theorem, connecting the linear response of a system to its statistical fluctuations. Consequently, the spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate response. The non-normality in the propagation operator introduces enhanced long-term variability related to nonequilibrium and/or Earth system sensitivity. The simple model can guide us to analyze comprehensive models' behavior.

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Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual model framework. The temperature spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity.
Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared...
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