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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 9, issue 4 | Copyright
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1235-1242, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1235-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 25 Oct 2018

Research article | 25 Oct 2018

Simulation of observed climate changes in 1850–2014 with climate model INM-CM5

Evgeny Volodin and Andrey Gritsun Evgeny Volodin and Andrey Gritsun
  • Institute for Numerical Mathematics, INM RAS, Gubkina 8, Moscow 119333, Russia

Abstract. Climate changes observed in 1850–2014 are modeled and studied on the basis of seven historical runs with the climate model INM-CM5 under the scenario proposed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In all runs global mean surface temperature rises by 0.8K at the end of the experiment (2014) in agreement with the observations. Periods of fast warming in 1920–1940 and 1980–2000 as well as its slowdown in 1950–1975 and 2000–2014 are correctly reproduced by the ensemble mean. The notable change here with respect to the CMIP5 results is the correct reproduction of the slowdown in global warming in 2000–2014 that we attribute to a change in ocean heat uptake and a more accurate description of the total solar irradiance in the CMIP6 protocol. The model is able to reproduce the correct behavior of global mean temperature in 1980–2014 despite incorrect phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation indices in the majority of experiments. The Arctic sea ice loss in recent decades is reasonably close to the observations in just one model run; the model underestimates Arctic sea ice loss by a factor of 2.5. The spatial pattern of the model mean surface temperature trend during the last 30 years looks close to the one for the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The model correctly estimates the magnitude of stratospheric cooling.

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Climate changes of 1850–2014 are modeled with the climate model INM-CM5. Periods of fast warming in 1920–1940 and 1980–2000 as well as its slowdown in 1950–1975 and 2000–2014 are correctly reproduced by the model. The notable improvement with respect to the previous model version is the correct reproduction of slowdowns in global warming that we attribute to a new aerosol block in the model and a more accurate description of the solar constant in the new (CMIP6) IPCC protocol.
Climate changes of 1850–2014 are modeled with the climate model INM-CM5. Periods of fast warming...
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