Projected changes in crop yield mean and  variability over West Africa in a world  1.5&thinsp;K warmer than the pre-industrial era

Parkes, Ben; Defrance, Dimitri; Sultan, Benjamin; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Xuhui

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018

Articles | Volume 9, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

The Earth system at a global warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 9, issue 1

Research article

|

20 Feb 2018

Research article |

| 20 Feb 2018

Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial era

Ben Parkes, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, Philippe Ciais, and Xuhui Wang

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018-supplement

Data sets

Crop yield for 3 crops simulated in West Africa, by four crop models, link to model results in NetCDF format. B. Parkes, D. Defrance, B. Sultan, P. Ciais, and X. Wang https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.876579

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Short summary

We present an analysis of three crops in West Africa and their response to short-term climate change in a world where temperatures are 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels. We show that the number of crop failures for all crops is due to increase in the future climate. We further show the difference in yield change across several West African countries and show that the yields are not expected to increase fast enough to prevent food shortages.