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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 8, issue 3
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 617–626, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: The Earth system at a global warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C

Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 617–626, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Short communication 14 Jul 2017

Short communication | 14 Jul 2017

Flexible parameter-sparse global temperature time profiles that stabilise at 1.5 and 2.0  °C

Chris Huntingford et al.
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Cited articles  
Braganza, K., Karoly, D., Hirst, A., Mann, M., Stott, P., Stouffer, R., and Tett, S.: Simple indices of global climate variability and change: Part I – variability and correlation structure, Clim. Dynam., 20, 491–502, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-002-0286-0, 2003.
Cowtan, K., Hausfather, Z., Hawkins, E., Jacobs, P., Mann, M. E., Miller, S. K., Steinman, B. A., Stolpe, M. B., and Way, R. G.: Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6526–6534, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064888, 2015.
Cox, P., Betts, R., Jones, C., Spall, S., and Totterdell, I.: Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model, Nature, 408, 184–187, https://doi.org/10.1038/35041539, 2000.
Hawkins, E., Ortega, P., Suckling, E., Schurer, A., Hegerl, G., Jones, P., Joshi, M., Osborn, T., Masson-Delmotte, V., Mignot, J., Thorne, P., and van Oldenborgh, G.: Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1, 2017.
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Short summary
Recent UNFCCC climate meetings have placed much emphasis on constraining global warming to remain below 2 °C. The 2015 Paris meeting went further and gave an aspiration to fulfil a 1.5 °C threshold. We provide a flexible set of algebraic global temperature profiles that stabilise to either target. This will potentially allow the climate research community to estimate local climatic implications for these temperature profiles, along with emissions trajectories to fulfil them.
Recent UNFCCC climate meetings have placed much emphasis on constraining global warming to...
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