Articles | Volume 8, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017
Short communication
 | 
14 Jul 2017
Short communication |  | 14 Jul 2017

Flexible parameter-sparse global temperature time profiles that stabilise at 1.5 and 2.0  °C

Chris Huntingford, Hui Yang, Anna Harper, Peter M. Cox, Nicola Gedney, Eleanor J. Burke, Jason A. Lowe, Garry Hayman, William J. Collins, Stephen M. Smith, and Edward Comyn-Platt

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Cited articles

Braganza, K., Karoly, D., Hirst, A., Mann, M., Stott, P., Stouffer, R., and Tett, S.: Simple indices of global climate variability and change: Part I – variability and correlation structure, Clim. Dynam., 20, 491–502, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-002-0286-0, 2003.
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Cox, P., Betts, R., Jones, C., Spall, S., and Totterdell, I.: Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model, Nature, 408, 184–187, https://doi.org/10.1038/35041539, 2000.
Hawkins, E., Ortega, P., Suckling, E., Schurer, A., Hegerl, G., Jones, P., Joshi, M., Osborn, T., Masson-Delmotte, V., Mignot, J., Thorne, P., and van Oldenborgh, G.: Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1, 2017.
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Short summary
Recent UNFCCC climate meetings have placed much emphasis on constraining global warming to remain below 2 °C. The 2015 Paris meeting went further and gave an aspiration to fulfil a 1.5 °C threshold. We provide a flexible set of algebraic global temperature profiles that stabilise to either target. This will potentially allow the climate research community to estimate local climatic implications for these temperature profiles, along with emissions trajectories to fulfil them.
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