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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 369-386, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Short communication
23 May 2017
Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments
Reinhard Prestele1, Almut Arneth2, Alberte Bondeau3, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré4, Thomas A. M. Pugh2,5, Stephen Sitch6, Elke Stehfest7, and Peter H. Verburg1,8 1Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
2Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Department of Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
3Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Écologie marine et continentale, Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Technopôle Arbois-Méditerranée, Bâtiment Villemin, BP 80, 13545 Aix-en-Provence CEDEX 4, France
4Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
5School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK
6School of Geography, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
7PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Postbus 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, the Netherlands
8Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstr. 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Abstract. Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) represents one of the key drivers of global environmental change. However, the processes and drivers of anthropogenic land-use activity are still overly simplistically implemented in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The published results of these models are used in major assessments of processes and impacts of global environmental change, such as the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Fully coupled models of climate, land use and biogeochemical cycles to explore land use–climate interactions across spatial scales are currently not available. Instead, information on land use is provided as exogenous data from the land-use change modules of integrated assessment models (IAMs) to TBMs. In this article, we discuss, based on literature review and illustrative analysis of empirical and modeled LULCC data, three major challenges of this current LULCC representation and their implications for land use–climate interaction studies: (I) provision of consistent, harmonized, land-use time series spanning from historical reconstructions to future projections while accounting for uncertainties associated with different land-use modeling approaches, (II) accounting for sub-grid processes and bidirectional changes (gross changes) across spatial scales, and (III) the allocation strategy of independent land-use data at the grid cell level in TBMs. We discuss the factors that hamper the development of improved land-use representation, which sufficiently accounts for uncertainties in the land-use modeling process. We propose that LULCC data-provider and user communities should engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced LULCC time series, which account for the diversity of LULCC modeling and increasingly include empirically based information about sub-grid processes and land-use transition trajectories, to improve the representation of land use in TBMs. Moreover, we suggest concentrating on the development of integrated modeling frameworks that may provide further understanding of possible land–climate–society feedbacks.

Citation: Prestele, R., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Pugh, T. A. M., Sitch, S., Stehfest, E., and Verburg, P. H.: Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 369-386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, 2017.
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Short summary
Land-use change is still overly simplistically implemented in global ecosystem and climate models. We identify and discuss three major challenges at the interface of land-use and climate modeling and propose ways for how to improve land-use representation in climate models. We conclude that land-use data-provider and user communities need to engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced land-use datasets to improve the quantification of land use–climate interactions and feedback.
Land-use change is still overly simplistically implemented in global ecosystem and climate...
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