The results of the study aimed to assess the influence of future nuclear power plant “Hanhikivi-1” upon the local thermal conditions in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea are presented. A number of experiments with different numerical models were also carried out in order to estimate the extreme hydro-meteorological conditions in the area of the construction. The numerical experiments were fulfilled both with analytically specified external forcing and with real external forcing for 2 years: a cold year (2010) and a warm year (2014). The study has shown that the extreme values of sea level and water temperature and the characteristics of wind waves and sea ice in the vicinity of the future nuclear power plant can be significant and sometimes catastrophic. Permanent release of heat into the marine environment from an operating nuclear power plant will lead to a strong increase in temperature and the disappearance of ice cover within a 2 km vicinity of the station. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future.
In recent decades the use of nuclear energy has been extended to a large scale. New nuclear power plants (NPPs) are designed and constructed, including those situated on the shores of seas and oceans, which provides free access to water needed for cooling processes, as discussed in Rubbelke and Vogele (2010). However, during the construction of these power plants, it is absolutely necessary to carry out a preliminary examination, including the assessment of risks associated with extreme natural conditions that may lead to technogenic disasters, as recently happened at the Japanese NPP in Fukushima, which was damaged during the earthquake and subsequent tsunami (see Acton and Hibbs, 2012; Buesseler et al., 2011; Srinivasan and Gopi Rethinaraj, 2013). There exists a twofold oppositely directed influence: (1) NPPs are affected by the environment and (2) NPPs impact the environment with possible negative effects manifested, in particular, in the release of warm cooling water (Chuang et al., 2009; Thermal standards for cooling water …, 2011).
Ensuring the safety of the operation of existing and planned NPPs requires solving the following two scientific problems: (1) evaluation of extreme external conditions (meteorological, hydrological, seismic) followed by an assessment of their impact on the NPPs and (2) carrying out an environmental impact assessment (EIA) for NPPs. In contrast to the first problem, which has been studied extensively in meteorology and oceanography in recent decades, researches on EIA methods, especially for the marine environment in the case of existing and planned NPPs operating in a regular mode, are not numerous (see, for example, Zeng et al., 2002; Abbaspour et al., 2005; Kaplan et al., 2016).
The environmental impact of a NPP results from the nuclear fuel cycle, the effects of nuclear accidents, and NPP operation. It is known that the greenhouse gas emissions from nuclear fission power are much smaller than those associated with coal, oil, and gas, and the routine health risks are much smaller than those associated with coal. However, there is a “catastrophic risk” potential if containment fails (von Hippel, 2010), which in nuclear reactors can be brought about by over-heated fuels melting and releasing large quantities of fission products into the environment. This potential risk could wipe out the benefits. Some predictions of the impact of severe NPP accidents on radionuclide contamination of the near-surface environment are given in Rumynin (2015).
The environmental impact of NPPs due to operation has been studied less than
nuclear fission effects. During the process of nuclear power generation,
large volumes of water are used. The uranium fuel inside reactors undergoes
induced nuclear fission, which releases great amounts of energy that is used
to heat water. The water turns into steam and rotates a turbine, creating
electricity. Nuclear plants must collect around 600 gallons (2.27 m
As with all thermoelectric plants, NPPs need cooling systems. The most
common systems for thermal power plants, including nuclear, are
once-through cooling, in which water is drawn from a large water
body, passes through the cooling system, and then flows back into the water
body; cooling pond, in which water is drawn from a pond dedicated to
the purpose, passes through the cooling system, and then returns to the
pond; cooling towers, in which water recirculates through the cooling
system until it evaporates from the tower.
Nuclear plants exchange 60 to 70 % of their thermal energy by cycling
with a body of water or by the evaporation of water through a cooling tower.
According to World Nuclear Association data
(
When taking in water for the cooling process, nuclear plants, like all thermal power plants, use special structures. Water is often drawn through screens to minimize the entry of debris. The problem is that many aquatic organisms are trapped and killed against the screens, through a process known as impingement. Aquatic organisms small enough to pass through the screens are subject to toxic stress in a process known as entrainment. Billions of marine organisms, such as fish, seals, shellfish, and turtles, which are essential to the food chain, are sucked into the cooling systems and destroyed.
The long-term experience related to the worldwide operation of NPPs shows that, under normal safe operating conditions, the non-radiological impact on the environment becomes dominant. One of the major factors is the heat pollution of the surface water bodies due to the discharge of waste heat from the condensers of NPPs. If heated condenser water is not cooled for reuse in a cooling tower, the waste heat may be discharged into either artificial reservoirs (ponds) or directly into surface waters like rivers, lakes, and sea bays.
NPPs release warm water into the sea, which can significantly affect the functioning of marine ecosystems on a local scale. In Hong and Guixiang (2012), a significant negative impact of the warm cooling water ejection of the coastal power plant located in the tidal Xiangshan Bay (China) on phytoplankton was shown. Similar conclusions are given in Chuang et al. (2009) after the assessment of the impact of discharged water from a coastal nuclear power plant located in Taiwan. Also, the impact assessment of the discharged water from a NPP located on the Atlantic coast in Brazil (Ilha Grande Bay) has shown the changes in the composition and structure of marine fish species as it was shown by Teixeira et al. (2009). All the studies were carried out on the basis of field measurements and observations.
In the work of Bork and Maier-Reimer (1978), by means of numerical simulation, the thermal regime in the tidal river Elbe was reproduced. As was expected, the results showed a clear oscillatory nature of the spread of warm water induced by the tidal currents. It can be assumed that, in contrast to the spread of heated water in a tidal river that always has its own flow velocity, in tidal coastal areas the oscillating contribution would be more pronounced. In Abbaspour et al. (2005), modeling of the warm waters spread from the coastal thermal power plant (Bandar Abbas thermal power plant, BATP) located in the Persian Gulf was carried out and shows good results of this method in the prediction of the discharged water spread in the basin with strong tidal oscillations. In the work of Zeng et al. (2002), the physical and numerical modeling of the warm discharged water transport spreading from a coastal nuclear power plant located in the tidal area of Daya Bay (China) near Hong Kong was carried out and also performed well in the simulation of the studied process.
In addition to field observations and numerical modeling, the usage of satellite data can also be useful in such assessments, as it was shown, for example, in the work of Chen et al. (2003), which presents the analysis of thermal pollution from a nuclear power plant located on the shores of the tidal South China Sea. The paper noted that it is more difficult to evaluate the effect of thermal pollution from a power plant in tidal seas than in non-tidal seas.
At present, there are five operating NPPs on the shores of the Baltic Sea: two Swedish (Forsmark NPP, electric capacity of 3210 MW; Oskarshamn, 2308 MW), two Finnish (Loviisa NPP, 1020 MW; Olkiluoto NPP, 1760 MW), and one Russian (Leningrad NPP, 4000 MW). Two of them (Forsmark and Olkiluoto) are located on the coast of the Bothnian Sea. On 19 January 2016, the construction of NPP “Hanhikivi-1” with the capacity of 1200 MW was started. This event had been preceded by examination of hydro-meteorological conditions in the area of construction, which included not only the estimation of extreme conditions in the vicinity of the Hanhikivi peninsula (Pyhäjoki municipality) in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea but also the possible impact of the future power plant on the marine environment in this area.
In particular, the evaluation of extreme weather and sea events in the
Bothnian Bay in the case of the absence of the NPP was carried out by the
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI, 2014). To find the
extreme values of sea temperature and water level, SMHI used long time series
of observations of these characteristics, complemented by the results
obtained by High Resolution Operational Model for the Baltic Sea (HIROMB) runs with a horizontal resolution of 1
The purpose of this study was twofold: (1) to estimate the possible extreme marine phenomena in this region (wind waves, sea level changes) and (2) to estimate the impact of the NPP on the local thermal regime in the future. To do this, we used different hydrodynamic models. Results of this examination are presented below.
When evaluating extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the study area of the sea, an empirical approach based on statistical analysis of the available time series of individual characteristics (wind speed, sea level, water temperature, ice cover characteristics, and others) is traditionally used. This approach has at least two obvious limitations: (1) the accuracy of such estimates is highly dependent on the duration of the observation period and (2) it cannot be used for areas where such data are not available. In this paper we propose a method for estimating extreme hydrological conditions in the study area based on mathematical modeling of the general ocean circulation. In the present study, the extreme hydrological conditions in the area of the future NPP “Hanhikivi-1” are estimated in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea. The general scheme of the calculation is as follows: (1) we perform a model run to simulate the general circulation for the entire Bothnian Bay on the coarse grid for the selected period (from 2010 to 2015, with double repetition of the year 2010 under one and the same external forcing) including the cold (2010) and warm (2014) years in the situation of the absence of the NPP. The model performance is verified through the quality of simulation of temperature and sea ice area fields. (2) We assess the extreme possible sea level in the NPP area on the basis of runs on the coarse grid. For this purpose the real situations of extreme storm surges during the selected time period were chosen (3) to assess the impact of the NPP on the temperature and sea ice fields around it on the basis of performing the calculations in case of the absence of the NPP (“background” scenario) and its presence (“predictive” scenario); runs are performed on the nested (fine) grid covering the neighborhood of the NPP for both cold and warm years. Real situations of extreme storm surges during the selected time period were also chosen (4) to assess the largest wind waves by performing the numerical experiments first on the coarse grid and then on the fine grid, with the prescribing boundary conditions from the solutions on the coarse grid.
The general scheme of numerical experiments is shown in Fig. 1. The models used and the details of the numerical experiments above are specified below.
The general scheme of the model calculations.
Bathymetry of the Bothnian Bay
A three-dimensional numerical model based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM)
(Blumberg and Mellor, 1987; Mellor, 2004) was used to simulate the
circulation pattern and thermal regime in the Bothnian Bay. It is a model
with a
To model ice and snow distribution in any area, an advanced sea ice model with several different categories of ice was used (Haapala et al., 2005; Ryabchenko et al., 2010). The model distinguishes the sea ice as two main types: deformed and non-deformed. The non-deformed ice is divided into several subcategories, while the deformed ice consists of only ridged and rafted ice. The rafted ice exists when the ice thickness is equal to or less than 17 cm. Otherwise, the ice is considered ridged. Evolution of each type is described by ice concentration and mass equations. The ice thickness of each category varies due to advection, deformation, and thermodynamic processes. It is assumed that fast ice exists in areas with depth less than some specified value. However, in the present study fast ice was not considered, and the model operated with seven different categories of sea ice.
The evolution of snow cover thickness can be described as the interaction of the following main mechanisms (Lepparanta, 1983): precipitation, surface melting, compaction, and the formation of slush, which further transforms into snow ice. In the present model only precipitation and surface melting were taken into account (Ryabchenko et al., 2010).
The wind wave model SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) (Booij et al., 1999; Ris et al., 1999) was used in the present study. SWAN is a third-generation spectral wave model specifically developed for wind wave simulation in shelf and shallow coastal areas with complex shoreline configuration. The model can take into account wind forcing, depth-induced wave breaking, refraction, diffraction, ambient currents and sea level oscillations, bottom friction, white capping, wave quadruplets and triads, wave-induced setup, presence of sub-grid obstacles, vegetation and bottom mud layer, and the turbulent viscosity. The core element of SWAN is the numerical and efficient solving of the spectral wave action balance equation, which includes source terms representing the effects of generation, dissipation, and nonlinear wave–wave interactions.
Statistical characteristics of air temperature, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed in the surface layer of the atmosphere between 2010 and 2014, calculated on the average daily data.
SWAN was used in a nonstationary mode with a time step equal to 10 min,
with maximal iterations at each time step set equal to 10. According to the
recommendations presented in the official SWAN manual, the directional
resolution was set equal to 10
The present study focuses on the Bothnian Bay (a northern part of the Baltic Sea) and the relatively small area off the Hanhikivi peninsula located at the eastern coast of the Bothnian Bay (Fig. 2). The bathymetry data were collected from different marine navigational charts, from the Baltic Sea Bathymetry Database (Baltic Sea Hydrographic Commission, 2013), and were provided from field observations. These data were linearly interpolated into grid nodes, using a low-frequency filter.
The Bothnian Bay model grid consists of 107
The Hanhikivi area model grid is much more curvilinear in its shape (see
Fig. 2b), consisting of 142
In addition to these abovementioned main model domains and their grids, we
also built and used another grid, which covered both the Bothnian Sea and the
Bothnian Bay, in order to assess the impact of incoming wind waves traveling
from the Bothnian Sea northward into the Bothnian Bay through the open south
boundary. This model grid (not shown) consisted of 101
Atmospheric forcing included air temperature and humidity, wind speed and
direction, and cloudiness, which were obtained from the results of the atmospheric
model HIRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Model) (
Temporal variability of mean monthly values of
The circulation model used in the present study calculates the momentum, heat, and salt fluxes at the air–sea and air–ice interfaces. The momentum fluxes are calculated traditionally as a quadratic friction law, making use of different drag coefficients for air–water, air–ice, and ice–water boundaries. The heat and salt fluxes are parameterized by taking into account the diurnal cycle of shortwave solar radiation (Parkinson and Washington, 1979; Ryabchenko et al., 2010).
At the open boundaries the coupled circulation and sea ice model assimilates
the sea level, current velocity, water temperature and salinity, sea ice
thickness and concentration, and snow thickness obtained from the results of
HIROMB (Funkquist, 2001;
At the solid lateral boundaries (coasts) a no-slip condition and zero fluxes are specified for horizontal velocity, heat, and salt.
At the bottom the vertical component of current velocity, heat, and salt
fluxes is set to zero. Bed shear stress is parameterized as a function of
horizontal velocity at the near-bed model
All the hydrological boundary conditions described above were applied for the Bothnian Bay circulation model, while for the Hanhikivi area circulation model the results obtained from the previous Bothnian Bay model runs were used as the boundary conditions, implementing a nesting technique.
It should also be noted that the hydrological regime of the area located
relatively close to the Hanhikivi peninsula is considerably affected by the
river Pohjoishaara situated nearby, with an annual runoff equal to
103
The initial conditions for the coupled circulation and sea ice model for the entire Bothnian Bay domain included water temperature, salinity, and sea level fields obtained from the HIROMB model.
Generally speaking, extreme sea levels in the Bothnian Bay are caused by storm winds, long waves, tides, low atmospheric pressure, seiches, and sea level rise of the world ocean. Tidal level oscillations in the Gulf of Bothnia are negligible (Lepparanta and Myrberg, 2009) and can be omitted in model simulations. The influence of moving centers of low atmospheric pressure has not been investigated in the present study. Still it can be assumed that their impact commonly appears jointly with the wind impact (SMHI, 2014). In order to simulate extreme sea level oscillations in the vicinity of the NPP Hanhikivi-1, we considered the situations with constant (both in speed and direction) maximal possible wind blowing long enough to establish an equilibrium state and under the influence of sea level change caused by the long waves coming from the Baltic Sea. As indicated above, such a simplistic approach to the evaluation of extreme sea level in the area of interest gives results in good agreement with the estimates of extreme values of sea level according to the observations over almost 100 years.
For the SWAN model the initial condition of no waves in the entire domain was adopted. At the solid boundaries the model sets the condition of full wave energy absorption and no wave energy generation. At the open boundaries in the case of outgoing waves, they can leave the area freely (radiation condition), while in the case of incoming waves there can be two options: (1) either no waves come into the model domain (an option used for the Bothnian Bay model) or (2) incoming wave spectrum is specified along the open boundary, which has been obtained from the previous Bothnian Bay simulations (an option used for the Hanhikivi model).
The model estimates of wind wave characteristics took into account the possible presence of sea ice cover in the Bothnian Bay, which in reality hinders or prevents the free generation and propagation of surface waves and limits the wave fetch if some part of the basin is covered with ice. The model run for 2014 was fulfilled for the entire year, which is why the inclusion of sea ice in the wind wave model was necessary. We assumed the isoline of ice concentration equal to 0.5 as an edge of the ice cover, which was in fact some kind of simplification but still appeared to be an effective way to limit the wave fetch in the presence of sea ice in the Bothnian Bay. All required data for the SWAN model (sea level oscillations, currents, sea ice) had been calculated in advance by the coupled circulation model before being used in the SWAN model.
Comparison of POM- and HIROMB-calculated sea levels at
Raahe station located near the NPP Hanhikivi-1 for the storm surge periods
of 14–16 October 2010
Comparison of the computed temperature profiles by POM and
HIROMB with observations provided by BED in the Bothnian Bay. Locations of
the stations are presented in Fig. 2a.
Taking into account the main objective of this study – to estimate extreme
values of the sea level and height of wind waves in the vicinity of the NPP
Hanhikivi-1 and estimate the maximum thermal pollution produced by the
NPP – the proposed models were verified with respect to the sea level,
significant wave height, sea water temperature, and sea ice area against all
available observational data for the selected period 2010–2015. These data
include data on sea level at six stations (Ratan, Furuögrund, Kalix, Kemi,
Raahe, Pietarsaari) on the shores of the Bothnian Bay
(
Statistical characteristics (correlation coefficient
Statistical characteristics (mean value
Analysis of Table 3 shows that when considering all profiles, with
respect to average temperature values
Comparison of the computed temperature profiles by POM on
coarse and fine grids (blue and red curves, respectively) with observations
(black curves) (Fennovoima report, 2014) at station PP5 near the NPP
Hanhikivi-1 in the Bothnian Bay for
Obviously, the coarse grid with a step of 1–2 nm is not able to reproduce the spread of plumes of warm water from the NPP Hanhikivi-1 discharge point because the characteristic length scale of the plume is of the order of 1 km. Proposed in this study, the fine nested grid for the vicinity of NPP Hanhikivi-1 with steps from 35 to 180 m will solve this problem, i.e., will accurately reproduce the size and shape of thermal pollution plumes around the station. It is important that the solution on the fine grid is significantly closer to observational data in comparison with the solution on the coarse grid (see Fig. 6).
The comparison of computed sea ice thickness and compactness showed that the
model results were in general accordance with observed values
(
Modeled
Verification of the results of the SWAN model (in terms of significant wave height, SWH) against observational data (Fennovoima report, 2013) for two points (PP2 and PP4) located in the vicinity of the Hanhikivi peninsula showed that in general the model correctly simulated wind wave characteristics (Fig. 8). The main discrepancies could be caused by inaccuracy in dealing with ice cover in the wave model and/or ice cover modeling itself.
Comparison of SWH observations and model results for the
periods
Summarizing, we can say that the proposed POM-based modeling system reproduces the principal characteristics of hydrodynamic regime (level, water temperature, altitude wind waves, sea ice) on the coarse grid at least no worse than the best model of the Baltic Sea HIROMB and gives a considerably better description of the temperature field on the fine grid. An advantage of POM that is important for the prognostic runs is the fact that the POM, unlike HIROMB, does not assimilate observational data.
With an aim to assess the maximal possible SWHs in
the area off the Hanhikivi peninsula and to investigate the main features of
wind wave fields in different hydrometeorological situations, a number of
numerical experiments with different analytically specified wind speeds and
directions was carried out. The area of interest is located along the
eastern coast in the Bothnian Bay; thus, we expected that the maximal wind waves
would be generated by western winds. If one drew a hypothetical line along
the Bothnian Bay, then it would have the direction from southwest to
northeast with the angle equal to approximately 50
These wind directions cover the entire range of possible directions capable of producing high waves in the vicinity of the future NPP Hanhikivi-1. All other wind directions outside the abovementioned range will lead to the occurrence of wave shadow zone near the Hanhikivi peninsula. Wind duration was 24 h. After the most dangerous wind direction had been determined, we used that direction and varied wind speeds, holding the direction constant. For that experiment the wind duration was also 24 h.
Model calculations of wind waves have shown that the most dangerous in terms
of the generation of wind waves in the NPP area are the west and northwest
wind, with the directions of 280 and 310
The model results allowed the estimation of the values of SWH in both the entire
Bothnian Bay and in the small area near Hanhikivi peninsula during different
external wind forcing. SWH for the most dangerous wind direction and wind
speed of 15 m s
In addition to the model experiments with theoretical atmospheric forcing, a model run for the real meteorological forcing of 2014 was carried out for the whole year. Just as in all other numerical experiments, both models (Bothnian Bay model and Hanhikivi area model) were used: the Bothnian Bay model produced all required wind wave characteristics to be used as boundary conditions in the Hanhikivi area model. The results obtained for 2014 show that the highest waves in the Bothnian Bay occurred during the autumn period, with SWH reaching 4.0 m. During the winter period of 2014, SWH reached 1.5–2.0 m at ice-free areas of the Bothnian Bay. However, most of the time during moderate wind speeds, SWH was at most 0.5–1.5 m.
A situation with rather large simulated SWH occurred on 27 September 2014 and is presented in Fig. 10 in order to show in detail the spatial distribution of wave heights in this area and the influence of bathymetry upon them. The region of the reduction of SWH due to wave breaking and bottom friction is clearly visible and in general coincides with the 5 m isobath. It should be noted that we used the parameterization for bottom friction implemented in the SWAN model, which takes into account the size of bed ripples calculated by making use of available field measurements of grain sizes.
Modeled SWH distribution on 27 September 2014.
Wind waves in the area near the Hanhikivi peninsula can be characterized by the time series of computed SWH at the location marked by the letter “W” in Fig. 2b. The time series of SWH in the Hanhikivi area for the whole of 2014 is presented in Fig. 11.
Modeled SWH time series in the Hanhikivi area at the location mark with “W” in Fig. 2b.
To calculate the extreme sea levels in the vicinity of the NPP Hanhikivi-1,
the maximum possible wind velocity was set equal to 30.2 m s
Ice thickness distribution (monthly mean) in the vicinity
of the NPP Hanhikivi-1 in February for conditions of the warm year
2014.
Ice thickness distribution (monthly mean) in the vicinity
of the NPP Hanhikivi-1 in February for conditions of the cold year
2010.
According to the simulations of possible sea level changes in the Bothnian
Bay, extreme sea level values in the vicinity of the future NPP at a
constant wind of 30.2 m s
To assess the possible impacts of the NPP Hanhikivi-1 on the local
thermal regime, two scenario runs were performed:
A background scenario simulating the natural conditions in the absence
of the NPP was performed. A predictive scenario was performed. The NPP has been built and is operating with the
temperature of heated discharged water set equal to 12
Runs were performed for a cold year (2010) and a warm year (2014). The
atmospheric characteristics necessary for calculating the fluxes of moment,
heat, and moisture at the air–water boundary were set according to the
atmospheric HIRLAM model, with a time resolution of 1 h. To set the
boundary conditions on the open boundary of the Bothnian Bay, we used the
data from the HIROMB model (sea level, water and ice current velocities,
temperature, salinity, ice thickness and compactness, snow thickness). The
average discharge of the Pohjoishaara River was set equal to 33 m
The vertical structure of the temperature field along the
section from the discharge point to the north for 4 April 2010:
In natural conditions, the water of the gulf around the Hanhikivi
peninsula was covered with ice from the beginning of December to the beginning of May
in 2010 (the cold year) and from the beginning of January to the beginning
of April in 2014 (the warm year). The highest background temperature in
the cold and warm years was achieved in July and August, respectively. The
thermal regime of the basin in the vicinity of the points of water intake
and water discharge is almost identical. In general, the spatial variations
of mean monthly temperature in the area of the Hanhikivi peninsula limited
by a radius of 2 km are small, not exceeding 0.6
Permanent discharge of warm water in the case of the operating NPP will lead to
a permanent polynya near the northern tip of the Hanhikivi
peninsula, resembling an ellipse with axes 1.5
The difference between background and predictive model runs is clear. A thermal plume (plume of heated water) emerges in the area of water discharge. Its spatial expansion and propagation mainly depends upon the wind speed and direction above the ice-free water surface and upon the current velocity and direction during ice cover periods. Figures 14–15 demonstrate the influence of the heated water discharge upon the ice cover distribution and thickness for both warm (2014) and cold (2010) years, respectively.
A vertical structure of water both in natural conditions and after the construction of the NPP was also investigated. A vertical structure changes significantly when large amounts of heated water have been discharged. Figure 16 shows the example of vertical cross sections of the temperature field calculated for the cold year conditions. The position of the cross section is presented in Fig. 2b. It starts from the heated-water discharge point and stretches to the north. The difference in depth for this one and the same profile is due to the changes in bathymetry caused by the planning hydrotechnical works near the future station.
The thermal regime in the vicinity of the water discharge point becomes
completely different: SST deviations from background values are maximal in
the 0–250 m zone, where they reach approximately 10
Assessment of the scale of the thermal effects that could arise due to the influence of the NPP Hanhikivi-1 on the local thermal regime has been obtained for anomalously warm and cold years. These years for the Hanhikivi area were identified as a result of the statistical analysis of long-term variability of meteorological parameters (with 3 h resolution) for the period from 1993 to 2014, observed at the meteorological station Raahe Lapaluoto. The data were provided by Fennovoima (Fennovoima report, 2015). It was found that the coldest winter for the period was observed in 2010. The hottest summer for the period from 1993 to 2014 was observed in 2002 and for the period from 2004 to 2014 the hottest summer was observed in 2014. Choosing 2014 as the abnormally warm year was dictated by the availability of observational data needed for verification of the models used: the number of available data for 2014 were greater than for 2002. If 2002 were considered as an abnormally warm year, the difference between the cold and warm years would be more. In any case, the resulting estimates should be viewed only as typical ones that determine the order of magnitude.
Another restriction of this study is connected with prescribing the constant
temperature difference (12
The main missing physical mechanism in the coupling of the models used in the present study is the influence of the wave bottom boundary layer upon the current bottom boundary layer. The transfer of SWAN results into the POM model was not made during the computations, only from POM to SWAN. However, from our point of view, this interaction between bottom boundary layers has less impact on the final solution than the influence of meteorological forcing and model estimates of other hydrological parameters such as sea level, sea ice distribution, and currents.
The approach used in this study based on the method of nested grids is
well-known in oceanography. Here it has been used together with
consideration of (1) model situations (setting the maximum possible wind of
a certain direction in the selected periods of storm surges, prescribing
direction and wind speed in the simulation of wind waves) aimed at evaluating
the extreme changes in sea level and wind wave parameters in the selected
area – the construction area of the NPP Hanhikivi-1 in the Bothnian Bay,
Baltic Sea – and (2) the scenarios of warm and cold years for the detailed
assessment of the thermal pollution of the NPP's neighborhood. One important
feature of the nested grids used should be emphasized: the grid vertical
structure does not change when going from the coarse to the fine grid. This
avoids the situation with arising unstable stratification in fields
interpolated on the fine grid and ensures the absence of numerical noise,
which often causes the instability of computing. The scientific value of
this approach is the fact that, unlike traditional statistical estimates of
the extreme values of marine characteristics and their repeatability by
observations from meteorological stations, it can be used in the local areas
where the duration of the time series of observations is small (for example,
in high-latitude Arctic seas). The most important results from the engineering point of view for the
neighborhood of the NPP Hanhikivi-1 are as follows. Model calculations of wind
waves have shown that the most dangerous (in terms of the generation of wind
waves in the NPP area) is a northwest wind with the direction of
310 Numerical experiments for the cold (2010) and the warm years (2014) showed
that the permanent release of heat into the marine environment from the
operating NPP for the cold year will increase the temperature in the upper
layer in the 250 m zone (from the heated water discharge point) by 10 According to the estimates, the scale of the thermal impact of the NPP on
the local thermal regime is substantial and therefore this impact should be
taken into account when assessing local climate changes and marine
environmental impact in the future.
The data presented in this study are available in
NetCDF format (
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
This study was supported by grant 14-50-00095 of the Russian Science Foundation, by the grant 16-55-76021 of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under research grant 01DJ16016. We would like to thank the Finnish Meteorological Institute for kindly providing us with meteorological and sea level data at the Raahe station. We also thank the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions. Edited by: A. Rutgersson Reviewed by: two anonymous referees