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Earth System Dynamics
An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic
- About
- Editorial board
- Articles
- Special issues
- Highlight articles
- Manuscript tracking
- Subscribe to alerts
- Peer review
- For authors
- For reviewers
- EGU publications
- Imprint
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IF 4.351
5.124CiteScore
4.44SNIP 1.250
SJR 2.203
index 29h5-index 31
Abstracted/indexed
Abstracted/indexed
Volume 8, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 265–282, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-265-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-265-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue: Multiple drivers for Earth system changes in the Baltic Sea...
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 265–282, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-265-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-265-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 12 Apr 2017
Research article | 12 Apr 2017
Assessment of extreme hydrological conditions in the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea, and the impact of the nuclear power plant “Hanhikivi-1” on the local thermal regime
Anton Y. Dvornikov et al.Related authors
No articles found.
Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Ozgur Gurses, Sergey Danilov, Nikolay Koldunov, Qiang Wang, Dmitry Sein, Margarita Smolentseva, Natalja Rakowsky, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4875–4899, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4875-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4875-2019, 2019
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This paper is the first in a series documenting and assessing important key components of the Finite-volumE Sea ice-Ocean Model version 2.0 (FESOM2.0). We assess the hydrographic biases, large-scale circulation, numerical performance and scalability of FESOM2.0 compared with its predecessor, FESOM1.4. The main conclusion is that the results of FESOM2.0 compare well to FESOM1.4 in terms of model biases but with a remarkable performance speedup with a 3 times higher throughput.
Thomas Rackow, Dmitry V. Sein, Tido Semmler, Sergey Danilov, Nikolay V. Koldunov, Dmitry Sidorenko, Qiang Wang, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2635–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2635-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2635-2019, 2019
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Current climate models show errors in the deep ocean that are larger than the level of natural variability and the response to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. These errors are larger than the signals we aim to predict. With the AWI Climate Model, we show that increasing resolution to resolve eddies can lead to major reductions in deep ocean errors. AWI's next-generation (CMIP6) model configuration will thus use locally eddy-resolving computational grids for projecting climate change.
Ivan Parras-Berrocal, Ruben Vazquez, William Cabos, Dmitry Sein, Rafael Mañanes, Juan Perez-Sanz, and Alfredo Izquierdo
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2019-42, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2019-42, 2019
Revised manuscript under review for OS
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This work presents high-resolution simulations of a coupled regional model in the Mediterranean basin. The used approach allows assessing the role of ocean feedbacks in the downscaled climate. Our results show good skills in simulating present climate; the model's robustness introduces improvements in reproducing physical processes at local scales. Our climate projections reveal that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean Sea will be warmer and saltier, although not in a homogeneous way.
Roman E. Vankevich, Ekaterina V. Sofina, Tatiana E. Eremina, Vladimir A. Ryabchenko, Mikhail S. Molchanov, and Alexey V. Isaev
Ocean Sci., 12, 987–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-987-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-987-2016, 2016
N. Sudarchikova, U. Mikolajewicz, C. Timmreck, D. O'Donnell, G. Schurgers, D. Sein, and K. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 765–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-765-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-765-2015, 2015
Related subject area
Dynamics of the Earth system: interactions
Organization of dust storms and synoptic-scale transport of dust by Kelvin waves
ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation
North Pacific subtropical sea surface temperature frontogenesis and its connection with the atmosphere above
Influence of position and strength of westerlies and trades on Agulhas leakage and South Benguela Upwelling
The multi-scale structure of atmospheric energetic constraints on globally averaged precipitation
Potential of global land water recycling to mitigate local temperature extremes
Pipes to Earth's subsurface: the role of atmospheric conditions in controlling air transport through boreholes and shafts
Causal dependences between the coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics over the tropical Pacific, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic
Moisture transport and Antarctic sea ice: austral spring 2016 event
Recent changes of relative humidity: regional connections with land and ocean processes
Assessments of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover response to 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming
On the social dynamics of moisture recycling
Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods
Two drastically different climate states on an Earth-like terra-planet
Spatial–temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2 °C warming scenarios across China
Interannual variability in the gravity wave drag – vertical coupling and possible climate links
A new pattern of the moisture transport for precipitation related to the drastic decline in Arctic sea ice extent
Influence of atmospheric internal variability on the long-term Siberian water cycle during the past 2 centuries
Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts
The concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins
Contribution of atmospheric circulation to recent off-shore sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea
Interannual variability of mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate in an inter-tidal basin
Desertification, resilience, and re-greening in the African Sahel – a matter of the observation period?
Mechanisms of variability in decadal sea-level trends in the Baltic Sea over the 20th century
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the eastern Baltic Sea regions
Atmospheric torques and Earth's rotation: what drove the millisecond-level length-of-day response to the 2015–2016 El Niño?
Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015
A method to preserve trends in quantile mapping bias correction of climate modeled temperature
A Lagrangian perspective of the hydrological cycle in the Congo River basin
A wind proxy based on migrating dunes at the Baltic coast: statistical analysis of the link between wind conditions and sand movement
Drought identification in the eastern Baltic region using NDVI
River logjams cause frequent large-scale forest die-off events in southwestern Amazonia
Intensity of geodynamic processes in the Lithuanian part of the Curonian Spit
Evaluating the atmospheric drivers leading to the December 2014 flood in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany
Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land–atmosphere coupling diagnostics
A model study of warming-induced phosphorus–oxygen feedbacks in open-ocean oxygen minimum zones on millennial timescales
Accounting for the climate–carbon feedback in emission metrics
Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales
Response of the AMOC to reduced solar radiation – the modulating role of atmospheric chemistry
Seasonality and spatial variability of dynamic precipitation controls on the Tibetan Plateau
Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the satellite era
Soil-frost-enabled soil-moisture–precipitation feedback over northern high latitudes
Radiative forcing and feedback by forests in warm climates – a sensitivity study
Comparing peasants' perceptions of precipitation change with precipitation records in the tropical Callejón de Huaylas, Peru
Alluvial plain dynamics in the southern Amazonian foreland basin
Atmospheric rivers moisture sources from a Lagrangian perspective
Observationally based analysis of land–atmosphere coupling
Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data
The tropical Atlantic surface wind divergence belt and its effect on clouds
The nexus of oil, conflict, and climate change vulnerability of pastoral communities in northwest Kenya
Ashok Kumar Pokharel and Michael L. Kaplan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 651–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-651-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-651-2019, 2019
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This study contributes to a better understanding of how large-scale dust transport can be organized from northwest Africa to the US, Amazon basin, and Europe and might be due in part to Kelvin waves. We also think there is still a need to study major historical dust events that occurred in this region to confirm that this location is suitable and responsible for the generation of the Kelvin waves and the transport of dust on a regular basis.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
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Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Leying Zhang, Haiming Xu, Jing Ma, Ning Shi, and Jiechun Deng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 261–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-261-2019, 2019
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Net heat flux dominates the frontogenesis of the NPSTF from October to December, while oceanic meridional temperature advection contributes equally as much or even more net heat flux in January and February. The atmosphere is critical to frontogenesis through net heat flux and the Aleutian low, the latter of which benefits meridional temperature advection.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Kay-Christian Emeis, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-16, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
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Our study reveals that the latitudinal position and the intensity of southern hemisphere trades and westerlies is correlated. In the last decades westerlies have shifted poleward and have intensified. Furthermore, the latitudinal shifts and intensity of the trades and westerlies impacts the sea surface temperatures around Southern Africa and in the Benguela upwelling region. The future development of the wind stress depends on the strength of greenhouse gas forcing.
Miguel Nogueira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 219–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-219-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-219-2019, 2019
Mathias Hauser, Wim Thiery, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 157–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, 2019
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We develop a method to keep the amount of water in the soil at the present-day level, using only local water sources in a global climate model. This leads to less drying over many land areas, but also decreases river runoff. We find that temperature extremes in the 21st century decrease substantially using our method. This provides a new perspective on how land water can influence regional climate and introduces land water management as potential tool for local mitigation of climate change.
Elad Levintal, Nadav G. Lensky, Amit Mushkin, and Noam Weisbrod
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1141-2018, 2018
Stéphane Vannitsem and Pierre Ekelmans
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1063–1083, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1063-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1063-2018, 2018
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon is a slow dynamics present in the coupled ocean–atmosphere tropical Pacific system which has important teleconnections with the northern extratropics. These teleconnections are usually believed to be the source of an enhanced predictability in the northern extratropics at seasonal to decadal timescales. This question is challenged by investigating the causality between these regions using an advanced technique known as convergent cross mapping.
Monica Ionita, Patrick Scholz, Klaus Grosfeld, and Renate Treffeisen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 939–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-939-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-939-2018, 2018
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In austral spring 2016 the Antarctic region experienced anomalous sea ice retreat in all sectors, with sea ice extent in October and November 2016 being the lowest in the Southern Hemisphere over the observational record (1979–present). The extreme sea ice retreat was accompanied by the wettest and warmest spring on record, over large areas covering the Indian ocean, the Ross Sea, and the Weddell Sea.
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Anita Drumond, Ahmed El Kenawy, Fernando Dominguez-Castro, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, and Marina Peña-Gallardo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 915–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-915-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-915-2018, 2018
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We analyzed changes in surface relative humidity (RH) at the global scale from 1979 to 2014 and compared the variability and trends in RH with those in land evapotranspiration and ocean evaporation in moisture source areas across a range of selected regions worldwide. Our results stress that the different hypotheses that may explain the decrease in RH under a global warming scenario could act together to explain recent RH trends.
Aihui Wang, Lianlian Xu, and Xianghui Kong
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 865–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-865-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-865-2018, 2018
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The snow cover fractions (SCFs) from the CESM 1.5°C and 2°C projects and CMIP5 are assessed. The spatiotemporal variations in the above products are grossly consistent with observations. The SFC change in RCP2.6 is comparable to that in 1.5°C, but lower than that in 2°C. The contribution of surface temperature change to SCF differs by season. The model physical parameterization plays a predominant role in snow simulations triggered by climate internal variability.
Patrick W. Keys and Lan Wang-Erlandsson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 829–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-829-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-829-2018, 2018
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Moisture recycling is the atmospheric branch of the water cycle, including evaporation and precipitation. While the physical water cycle is well-understood, the social links among the recipients of precipitation back to the sources of evaporation are not. In this work, we develop a method to determine how these social connections unfold, using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, finding that there are distinct types of social connections with corresponding policy and management tools.
Nasser Najibi and Naresh Devineni
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 757–783, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-757-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-757-2018, 2018
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A global assessment of flood events using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) database is performed here to explore the planetary nature of the trends in the frequency and duration of floods (short, moderate, and long). This comprehensive study is the very first global study of
actual flood eventswhich identifies temporal changes in frequencies and characteristics of probability distribution of flood durations to understand the changing organization of the local to global dynamical systems.
Sirisha Kalidindi, Christian H. Reick, Thomas Raddatz, and Martin Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 739–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-739-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-739-2018, 2018
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Using climate simulations, we investigate the role of water recycling in shaping the climate of low-obliquity Earth-like terra-planets. By such a mechanism feeding water back from the extra-tropics to the tropics, the planet can assume two drastically different climate states differing by more than 35 K in global temperature. We describe the bifurcation between the two states occurring upon changes in surface albedo and argue that the bistability hints at a wider habitable zone for such planets.
Ran Zhai, Fulu Tao, and Zhihui Xu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 717–738, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-717-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-717-2018, 2018
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This study investigated the changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention (TEWR) across China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios by four bias-corrected GCMs using the VIC hydrological model. Results showed that TEWR remained relatively stable than runoff under warming scenarios and there were more water-related risks under the 2.0 °C than under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. Our findings are useful for water resource management under different warming scenarios.
Petr Šácha, Jiri Miksovsky, and Petr Pisoft
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 647–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-647-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-647-2018, 2018
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The paper investigates variability in the gravity wave drag in the stratosphere in connection with climate phenomena like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. This link represents a possible mechanism of tropospheric influence on the higher atmospheric layers, a mechanism of utmost importance that has not been studied in detail yet. The results illustrate that there are indeed significant changes in the gravity wave drag distribution and strength depending on the phase of the studied oscillations.
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Raquel Nieto, Marta Vázquez, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 611–625, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-611-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-611-2018, 2018
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We have identified changes in the pattern of moisture transport for precipitation over the Arctic region, the Arctic Ocean, and its 13 main subdomains concurrent with the major sea ice decline that occurred in 2003. The pattern consists of a general decrease in moisture transport in summer and enhanced moisture transport in autumn and early winter, with different contributions depending on the moisture source and ocean subregion.
Kazuhiro Oshima, Koto Ogata, Hotaek Park, and Yoshihiro Tachibana
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 497–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-497-2018, 2018
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Long-term variations in the Siberian river discharges of the Lena in the east and the Ob in the west were examined based on the observations, tree-ring reconstructions, and simulations with atmospheric and climate models. The discharges of the two rivers tended to be negatively correlated during the past 2 centuries. An east–west seesaw pattern of summertime large-scale atmospheric circulation frequently emerges over Siberia as an internal variability. This results in the negative correlations.
Francina Dominguez, Sandy Dall'erba, Shuyi Huang, Andre Avelino, Ali Mehran, Huancui Hu, Arthur Schmidt, Lawrence Schick, and Dennis Lettenmaier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 249–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-249-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-249-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for most of the extreme flooding events on the northwestern coast of the US. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense. We present an integrated modeling system to quantify atmospheric–hydrologic–hydraulic and economic impacts of an AR event in western Washington. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.
Jorge Eiras-Barca, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 91–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, 2018
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This paper analyses the potential role of atmospheric rivers in the explosive cyclone deepening. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2011, we analyse the concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins for the extended winter months (ONDJFM).
Sitar Karabil, Eduardo Zorita, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 69–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-69-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-69-2018, 2018
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We analysed the contribution of atmospheric factors to interannual off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea region. We identified a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely linked to sea-level variability than the NAO. The inverse barometer effect contributes to that link in the winter and summer seasons. Freshwater flux is connected to the link in summer and net heat flux in winter.The new atmospheric-pattern-related wind forcing plays an important role in summer.
Theo Gerkema and Matias Duran-Matute
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1223–1235, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1223-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1223-2017, 2017
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Local mean sea level often varies strongly from year to year (on the order of a few decimeters). This is mainly due to interannual variability in wind climate and atmospheric pressure. In this paper, regional differences in the sensitivity of mean sea level to atmospheric forcing are studied in an inter-tidal basin. Correcting for the atmospheric effects removes most of the interannual variability in mean sea level.
Hannelore Kusserow
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1141–1170, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1141-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1141-2017, 2017
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Sahel greening and browning are discussed based on the relevance of edaphic factors, the importance of the observation period, and modifications in the vegetation pattern. The key findings are that (i) vegetation recovery predominantly depends on soil types, (ii) botanical investigations and EO-based time series show a substantial decline in the diversity and cover density of woody species compared to pre-drought conditions, (iii) and pattern formation is a key indicator for ecosystem changes.
Sitar Karabil, Eduardo Zorita, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1031–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1031-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1031-2017, 2017
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We statistically analysed the mechanisms of the variability in decadal sea-level trends for the whole Baltic Sea basin over the last century. We used two different sea-level data sets and several climatic data sets. The results of this study showed that precipitation has a lagged effect on decadal sea-level trend variations from which the signature of atmospheric effect is removed. This detected underlying factor is not connected to oceanic forcing driven from the North Atlantic region.
Liisi Jakobson, Erko Jakobson, Piia Post, and Jaak Jaagus
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1019–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1019-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1019-2017, 2017
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Relationships between meteorological parameters between Arctic and the Baltic Sea regions were investigated using NCEP-CFSR reanalysis for 1979–2015. The Greenland and Baffin Bay regions climate have the most significant teleconnections with the Baltic Sea region temperature, specific humidity and wind speed. These relationships can be explained by the AO/NAO index variability only in winter. The results are valuable for selecting Arctic regions with the largest effect on the Baltic Sea region.
Sébastien B. Lambert, Steven L. Marcus, and Olivier de Viron
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1009–1017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1009-2017, 2017
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We explain how the extreme 2015–2016 El Niño event lengthened the day by 0.8 ms. The 2015–2016 event was an El Niño event of a different type compared to previous extreme events; thus, we expected different mechanisms of coupling with the solid Earth. We showed that the atmospheric torque on the American topography, usually acting alone during classical El Niños, was, in 2015–2016, augmented by a friction torque over the Pacific Ocean and inherent to the different nature of this particular event.
Jaak Jaagus, Mait Sepp, Toomas Tamm, Arvo Järvet, and Kiira Mõisja
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 963–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-963-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-963-2017, 2017
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Trends and regime shifts in climatic and hydrological parameters are analysed in Estonia during 1951–2015. The most important finding was the regime shift in the majority of parameters since the winter 1988/1989. The intensity of westerly circulation described by the NAO and AO indices increased, winter mean air temperature and precipitation also increased, and snow cover duration decreased. Consequently, specific runoff of rivers increased in January, February and March but decreased in April.
Manolis G. Grillakis, Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, Ioannis N. Daliakopoulos, and Ioannis K. Tsanis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 889–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-889-2017, 2017
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We present a methodology to adjust the systematic errors of climate-modeled temperature with a simultaneous long-term trend preservation. The method considers the normalization of the temperature towards a reference period modeled temperature and the estimation of a residual signal, in order to apply adjustment only to the former. The skill of the methodology is compared to other methods while also assessed on the European scale.
Rogert Sorí, Raquel Nieto, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Anita Drumond, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 653–675, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-653-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-653-2017, 2017
Svenja E. Bierstedt, Birgit Hünicke, Eduardo Zorita, and Juliane Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 639–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-639-2017, 2017
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We statistically analyse the relationship between the structure of migrating dunes in the southern Baltic and the driving wind conditions over the past 26 years, with the long-term aim of using migrating dunes as a proxy for past wind conditions at an interannual resolution.
Egidijus Rimkus, Edvinas Stonevicius, Justinas Kilpys, Viktorija Maciulyte, and Donatas Valiukas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 627–637, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-627-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-627-2017, 2017
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Drought effect on vegetation in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region was determined using satellite data. The impact of precipitation deficit on vegetation on arable land and in broadleaved and coniferous forests was analysed. The precipitation deficit in the first part of the growing season only has a significant impact on the vegetation on arable land, while this impact becomes more evident in all types of vegetation in the second half of the season.
Umberto Lombardo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 565–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-565-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-565-2017, 2017
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In lowland Bolivia, satellite images show rivers collapsing and the replacement of forest with savannah. This was first described in 1996 as the result of logjams (river dams created by fallen trees). I have investigated how the logjams form and affect the forest through remote sensing and fieldwork. Logjams occur nearly every year and propagate upriver until the river changes course. This region offers a unique opportunity to study how frequent forest die-off events affect biodiversity.
Algimantas Česnulevičius, Regina Morkūnaitė, Artūras Bautrėnas, Linas Bevainis, and Donatas Ovodas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 419–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-419-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-419-2017, 2017
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The article analysed the problems of aeolian relief changes. The changes are determined by climate, neo-tectonics, and human impact. The most important climate factors are wind speed and wind direction. Strong permanent winds induced fast sand drying and activated deflation processes, which were further accelerated by a constant stream of visitors to the dunes. The neo-tectonic movements formed micro-terraces on the eastern dune slope, which changes on wet sand pressure.
Nils H. Schade
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 405–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-405-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-405-2017, 2017
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Atmospheric conditions at the onset of the December 2014 flood in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, are described. Results show that the antecedent precipitation index (API) is able to reflect soil moisture conditions and, in combination with the maximum 3–day precipitation sum (R3d), to capture the main drivers ultimately leading to this flood. Trend analyses indicate an increasing risk of flood-prone situations over the last decades in this region. Further analyses are planned at the German coasts.
Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Rene Orth, Markus Reichstein, Martha Vogel, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 387–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-387-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-387-2017, 2017
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The present study (1) evaluates land–atmosphere coupling in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble against an ensemble of benchmarking datasets and (2) refines the model ensemble using a land–atmosphere coupling diagnostic as constraint. Our study demonstrates that a considerable fraction of coupled climate models overemphasize warm-season
moisture-limitedclimate regimes in midlatitude regions. This leads to biases in daily-scale temperature extremes, which are alleviated in a constrained ensemble.
Daniela Niemeyer, Tronje P. Kemena, Katrin J. Meissner, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-357-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-357-2017, 2017
Thomas Gasser, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, William J. Collins, Drew T. Shindell, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 235–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, 2017
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Emission metrics such as GWP or GTP are used to put non-CO2 species on a
CO2-equivalentscale. In the fifth IPCC report the metrics are inconsistent, as the climate–carbon feedback is included only for CO2 but not for non-CO2 species. Here, we simulate a new impulse response function for the feedback, and we use it to correct the metrics. For instance, 1 g of CH4 is equivalent to 31 g of CO2 (instead of 28 g) following the corrected GWP100 metric. It is 34 g if other factors are also updated.
Roger N. Jones and James H. Ricketts
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 177–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-177-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-177-2017, 2017
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Climate over decadal timescales, forced by added greenhouse gases, could either change independently of internally generated variability or interact with it. For hypothesis 1, the atmosphere warms gradually, affected by random climate noise. For hypothesis 2, warming is nonlinear and step-like. Two statistical models, step and trend, are used to analyse observed and modelled temperatures; the results are subject to six tests. In conclusion, externally forced warming is step-like at these scales.
Stefan Muthers, Christoph C. Raible, Eugene Rozanov, and Thomas F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 877–892, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, 2016
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important oceanic circulation system which transports large amounts of heat from the tropics to the north. This circulation is strengthened when less solar irradiance reaches the Earth, e.g. due to reduced solar activity or geoengineering techniques. In climate models, however, this response is overestimated when chemistry–climate interactions and the following shift in the atmospheric circulation systems are not considered.
Julia Curio and Dieter Scherer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 767–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-767-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-767-2016, 2016
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Using correlation analysis, we examine the influence of selected atmospheric variables, e.g. wind speed and moisture transport, on the precipitation variability over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). We find that different factors have different effects in different regions and seasons and that the midlatitude westerlies have an impact on the precipitation distribution on the TP and its surroundings year-round and not only in winter.
Alemu Gonsamo, Jing M. Chen, Drew T. Shindell, and Gregory P. Asner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 717–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-717-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-717-2016, 2016
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Using 3 decades of observational satellite and field data, we find that long-term changes in sea ice and sea level, plant phenology, and surface temperature are coherent with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and other global greenhouse gases. During the same period, natural causes of climate change should only have a net cooling long-term effect, suggesting the observed coherent pattern of changes across Earth's biological and physical systems could only be due to human activities.
Stefan Hagemann, Tanja Blome, Altug Ekici, and Christian Beer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 611–625, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-611-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-611-2016, 2016
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The present study analyses how cold-region physical soil processes, especially freezing of soil water, impact large-scale hydrology and climate over Northern Hemisphere high-latitude land areas. For this analysis, an atmosphere–land global climate model was used. It is shown that including these processes in the model leads to improved discharge in spring and a positive land–atmosphere feedback to precipitation over the high latitudes that has previously not been noted for the high latitudes.
Ulrike Port, Martin Claussen, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 535–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-535-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-535-2016, 2016
Wolfgang Gurgiser, Irmgard Juen, Katrin Singer, Martina Neuburger, Simone Schauwecker, Marlis Hofer, and Georg Kaser
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 499–515, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-499-2016, 2016
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Working on the interface of water availability and water demand in a small Andean catchment, peasants’ reports on detrimental precipitation changes during the last decades have attracted our scientific interest. We could not confirm any precipitation trends in this period with nearby precipitation records, but we found precipitation patterns that very likely pose challenges for rain-fed farming – in addition to potential other stresses by environmental and sociopolitical changes.
Umberto Lombardo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 453–467, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-453-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-453-2016, 2016
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This paper analyses the behaviour of 12 tributaries of the Río Mamoré and their influence on alluvial plain dynamics. These rivers are extremely active: between 1984 and 2014, 7 of these 12 rivers underwent a total of 41 crevasses and 29 avulsions. Most of the sedimentary load of these rivers is deposited on the alluvial plains before they reach the Mamoré. Crevasses and avulsions are not controlled by ENSO cycles, but rather are the result of intrabasinal processes.
Alexandre M. Ramos, Raquel Nieto, Ricardo Tomé, Luis Gimeno, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and David A. Lavers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 371–384, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-371-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-371-2016, 2016
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An atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean basin, allowing the identification of the major ARs that affected western European coasts between 1979 and 2014. A Lagrangian analysis was then applied in order to identify the main sources of moisture of the ARs that reach western European coasts. Results confirm not only the advection of moisture linked to ARs from subtropical ocean areas but also the existence of a tropical one.
Franco Catalano, Andrea Alessandri, Matteo De Felice, Zaichun Zhu, and Ranga B. Myneni
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-251-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-251-2016, 2016
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A generalized linear method specifically designed to assess the reciprocal forcing between climate fields is applied to the latest available observational global data sets of precipitation, evapotranspiration, vegetation and soil moisture. The analysis evidences a robust coupling between soil moisture and precipitation and strong links with volcanic eruptions and El Niño cycles, mediated by the feedbacks of evapotranspiration and vegetation.
Jiří Mikšovský, Eva Holtanová, and Petr Pišoft
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-231-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-231-2016, 2016
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Using regression analysis, near-surface temperatures from several gridded data sets were investigated for the presence of components attributable to external climate forcings and to major internal climate variability modes, over the 1901–2010 period. The spatial patterns of local temperature response and their combination in globally averaged temperature were shown and discussed, with special focus on highlighting the inter-dataset contrasts.
Y. Tubul, I. Koren, and O. Altaratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 781–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-781-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-781-2015, 2015
J. Schilling, R. Locham, T. Weinzierl, J. Vivekananda, and J. Scheffran
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 703–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-703-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-703-2015, 2015
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This article first discusses the effects of oil exploration on the vulnerability of pastoral communities to climate change. The effects are
found to be ambivalent, but mostly aggravating. Second, the article explores the (potential) effects of oil exploration on local conflict dynamics.
Findings suggest a risk of escalating company-community conflicts. These conflicts are mostly driven by unfulfilled community expectations for
employment, water and development.
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