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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 177-210, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-177-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
16 Mar 2017
Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales
Roger N. Jones and James H. Ricketts
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Interactive discussionStatus: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version      Supplement - Supplement
 
RC1: 'Referee Comments', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Oct 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
 
RC2: 'Review of Jones and Ricketts ms: Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales', Anonymous Referee #2, 21 Oct 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
 
EC1: 'Editor's comment', Michel Crucifix, 11 Nov 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
 
AC1: 'Author's response', Roger Jones, 01 Dec 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
Peer review completion
AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (06 Dec 2016) by Michel Crucifix  
AR by Roger Jones on behalf of the Authors (23 Dec 2016)  Author's response  Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (29 Dec 2016) by Michel Crucifix
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (26 Jan 2017)  
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by Editor) (03 Feb 2017) by Michel Crucifix  
AR by Roger Jones on behalf of the Authors (20 Feb 2017)  Author's response  Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (21 Feb 2017) by Michel Crucifix  
CC BY 4.0
Publications Copernicus
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Short summary
Climate over decadal timescales, forced by added greenhouse gases, could either change independently of internally generated variability or interact with it. For hypothesis 1, the atmosphere warms gradually, affected by random climate noise. For hypothesis 2, warming is nonlinear and step-like. Two statistical models, step and trend, are used to analyse observed and modelled temperatures; the results are subject to six tests. In conclusion, externally forced warming is step-like at these scales.
Climate over decadal timescales, forced by added greenhouse gases, could either change...
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