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Volume 8, issue 4 | Copyright

Special issue: Multiple drivers for Earth system changes in the Baltic Sea...

Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1019-1030, 2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 14 Nov 2017

Research article | 14 Nov 2017

Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the eastern Baltic Sea regions

Liisi Jakobson1,2, Erko Jakobson2, Piia Post1, and Jaak Jaagus1 Liisi Jakobson et al.
  • 1University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
  • 2Tartu Observatory, Tõravere, Estonia

Abstract. The teleconnections between meteorological parameters of the Arctic and the eastern Baltic Sea regions were analysed based on the NCEP-CFSR and ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2015. The eastern Baltic Sea region was characterised by meteorological values at a testing point (TP) in southern Estonia (58°N, 26°E). Temperature at the 1000hPa level at the TP have a strong negative correlation with the Greenland sector (the region between 55–80°N and 20–80°W) during all seasons except summer. Significant teleconnections are present in temperature profiles from 1000 to 500 hPa. The strongest teleconnections between the same parameter at the eastern Baltic Sea region and the Arctic are found in winter, but they are clearly affected by the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. After removal of the AO index variability, correlations in winter were below ±0.5, while in other seasons there remained regions with strong (|R| > 0.5, p < 0.002) correlations. Strong correlations (|R| > 0.5) are also present between different climate variables (sea-level pressure, specific humidity, wind speed) at the TP and different regions of the Arctic. These teleconnections cannot be explained solely with the variability of circulation indices. The positive temperature anomaly of mild winter at the Greenland sector shifts towards east during the next seasons, reaching the Baltic Sea region in summer. This evolution is present at 60 and 65°N but is missing at higher latitudes. The most permanent lagged correlations in 1000hPa temperature reveal that the temperature in summer at the TP is strongly predestined by temperature in the Greenland sector in the previous spring and winter.

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Relationships between meteorological parameters between Arctic and the Baltic Sea regions were investigated using NCEP-CFSR reanalysis for 1979–2015. The Greenland and Baffin Bay regions climate have the most significant teleconnections with the Baltic Sea region temperature, specific humidity and wind speed. These relationships can be explained by the AO/NAO index variability only in winter. The results are valuable for selecting Arctic regions with the largest effect on the Baltic Sea region.
Relationships between meteorological parameters between Arctic and the Baltic Sea regions were...