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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 7, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 917–935, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 917–935, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 24 Nov 2016

Research article | 24 Nov 2016

The impact of structural error on parameter constraint in a climate model

Doug McNeall et al.
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Booth, B. B. B., Bernie, D., McNeall, D., Hawkins, E., Caesar, J., Boulton, C., Friedlingstein, P., and Sexton, D. M. H.: Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 95–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013, 2013.
Bounceur, N., Crucifix, M., and Wilkinson, R. D.: Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing: an emulator-based approach, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 205–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-205-2015, 2015.
Brynjarsdóttir, J. and O'Hagan, A.: Learning about physical parameters: the importance of model discrepancy, Inverse Problems, 30, 114007, https://doi.org/10.1088/0266-5611/30/11/114007, 2014.
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We compare simulated with observed forests to constrain uncertain input parameters of the land surface component of a climate model. We find that the model is unlikely to be able to simulate the Amazon and other major forests simultaneously at any one parameter set, suggesting a bias in the model's representation of the Amazon. We find we cannot constrain parameters individually, but we can rule out large areas of joint parameter space.
We compare simulated with observed forests to constrain uncertain input parameters of the land...
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