Journal cover Journal topic
Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.351 IF 4.351
  • IF 5-year value: 5.124 IF 5-year
    5.124
  • CiteScore value: 4.44 CiteScore
    4.44
  • SNIP value: 1.250 SNIP 1.250
  • IPP value: 4.10 IPP 4.10
  • SJR value: 2.203 SJR 2.203
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 29 Scimago H
    index 29
  • h5-index value: 31 h5-index 31
Volume 7, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 893–915, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 893–915, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 17 Nov 2016

Research article | 17 Nov 2016

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

Kerstin Engström et al.
Related authors  
Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel
Florian Sallaba, Stefan Olin, Kerstin Engström, Abdulhakim M. Abdi, Niklas Boke-Olén, Veiko Lehsten, Jonas Ardö, and Jonathan W. Seaquist
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1191–1221, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1191-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1191-2017, 2017
Short summary
Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance
Kerstin Engström, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, John Hassler, and Benjamin Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 773–799, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-773-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-773-2017, 2017
Short summary
Related subject area  
Earth system interactions with the biosphere: landuse
Different response of surface temperature and air temperature to deforestation in climate models
Johannes Winckler, Christian H. Reick, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Alessandro Cescatti, Paul C. Stoy, Quentin Lejeune, Thomas Raddatz, Andreas Chlond, Marvin Heidkamp, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 473–484, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-473-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-473-2019, 2019
Short summary
Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming
Sebastian Ostberg, Jacob Schewe, Katelin Childers, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 479–496, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-479-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-479-2018, 2018
Short summary
A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios
Richard Fuchs, Reinhard Prestele, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 441–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-441-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-441-2018, 2018
Short summary
Quantification of the impacts of climate change and human agricultural activities on oasis water requirements in an arid region: a case study of the Heihe River basin, China
Xingran Liu and Yanjun Shen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 211–225, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-211-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-211-2018, 2018
Short summary
Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial era
Ben Parkes, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, Philippe Ciais, and Xuhui Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 119–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Cited articles  
Ahlström, A., Smith, B., Lindström, J., Rummukainen, M., and Uvo, C. B.: GCM characteristics explain the majority of uncertainty in projected 21st century terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance, Biogeosciences, 10, 1517–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1517-2013, 2013.
Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M. D. A., Dislich, C., Dodson, J. R., Engström, K., and Moran, D.: Drivers for global agricultural land use change: The nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy, Global Environ. Chang., 35, 138–147, 2015.
Amiro, B. D., MacPherson, J. I., and Desjardins, R. L.: BOREAS flight measurements of forest-fire effects on carbon dioxide and energy fluxes, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 96, 199–208, 1999.
Brown, C., Brown, E., Murray-Rust, D., Cojocaru, G., Savin, C., and Rounsevell, M.: Analysing uncertainties in climate change impact assessment across sectors and scenarios, Climatic Change, 128, 293–306, 2014.
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how much meat and milk we will eat, how much food we will waste and how well farms will be managed. Uncertainties in these factors mean that global cropland could decrease from today's 1500 Mha to only 893 Mha in 2100, which would free land for biofuel production. However, if population rises towards 12 billion and global yields remain low, global cropland could also increase up to 2380 Mha in 2100.
The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how...
Citation