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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 7, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 831–850, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-831-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 831–850, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-831-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 02 Nov 2016

Research article | 02 Nov 2016

A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100

Jorgen Randers et al.
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Manuscript under review for GMD
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Cited articles  
Akbari, H., Matthews, H. D., and Seto, D.: The long-term effect of increasing the albedo of urban areas, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 024004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024004, 2012.
Bates, N. R., Best, M. H. P., Neely, K., Garley, R., Dickson, A. G., and Johnson, R. J.: Detecting anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake and ocean acidification in the North Atlantic Ocean, Biogeosciences, 9, 2509–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-2509-2012, 2012.
Church, J. A. and White, N. J.: Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century, Surv. Geophys., 32, 585–602, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1, 2011.
CMIP5 scenario runs: http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_cmip5.cgi?id=someone@somewhere (last access: 27 October 2016), 2015.
C-ROADS: https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/c-roads/, last access: 11 November 2015.
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We describe ESCIMO, a system dynamics simulation model which is designed to make it simple to estimate the effects of possible human interventions to influence the global surface temperature. ESCIMO consists of sectors that track global carbon flows, global energy flows and global albedo change. One conclusion is that human interventions that cost less than 1 % of world GDP are at most able to lower the temperature rise in 2050 by up to 0.5 °C and in 2100 by up to 1.0 °C.
We describe ESCIMO, a system dynamics simulation model which is designed to make it simple to...
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