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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 7, issue 3
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 583–595, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-583-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 583–595, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-583-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 12 Jul 2016

Research article | 12 Jul 2016

Evidence of cosmic recurrent and lagged millennia-scale patterns and consequent forecasts: multi-scale responses of solar activity (SA) to planetary gravitational forcing (PGF)

Jorge Sánchez-Sesma1,2 Jorge Sánchez-Sesma
  • 1Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico
  • 2Independent consultant, Mexico

Abstract. Solar activity (SA) oscillations over the past millennia are analyzed and extrapolated based on reconstructed solar-related records. Here, simple recurrent models of SA signal are applied and tested. The consequent results strongly suggest the following: (a) the existence of multi-millennial ( ∼ 9500-year) scale solar patterns linked with planetary gravitational forcing (PGF), and (b) their persistence, over at least the last glacial–interglacial cycle, but possibly since the Miocene (10.5 Myr ago). This empirical modeling of solar recurrent patterns has also provided a consequent multi-millennial-scale experimental forecast, suggesting a solar decreasing trend toward grand (super) minimum conditions for the upcoming period, AD 2050–2250 (AD 3750–4450). Taking into account the importance of these estimated SA scenarios, a comparison is made with other SA forecasts. In Appendixes A and B, we provide further verification, testing and analysis of solar recurrent patterns since geological eras, and their potential gravitational forcing.

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This study, supported with detailed reconstructed solar records over last millennia, began to detect objectively patterns and recurrences in Solar activity. It is part of a process, in geosciences that began four centuries ago, when Newton removed the last doubts about the validity of the heliocentric model of the Solar System. It is intended to provide motivations to develop a more robust science of the Earth´s climate, centered not only in the geo or helio-proceses, but also in the cosmic ones
This study, supported with detailed reconstructed solar records over last millennia, began to...
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