Journal cover Journal topic
Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.351 IF 4.351
  • IF 5-year value: 5.124 IF 5-year
    5.124
  • CiteScore value: 4.44 CiteScore
    4.44
  • SNIP value: 1.250 SNIP 1.250
  • IPP value: 4.10 IPP 4.10
  • SJR value: 2.203 SJR 2.203
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 29 Scimago H
    index 29
  • h5-index value: 31 h5-index 31
Volume 6, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 673–688, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-673-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: Social dynamics and planetary boundaries in Earth system...

Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 673–688, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-673-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 13 Oct 2015

Research article | 13 Oct 2015

Long-run evolution of the global economy – Part 2: Hindcasts of innovation and growth

T. J. Garrett
Related authors  
Using snowflake surface-area-to-volume ratio to model and interpret snowfall triple-frequency radar signatures
Mathias Gergely, Steven J. Cooper, and Timothy J. Garrett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12011–12030, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12011-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12011-2017, 2017
Short summary
Effects of long-range aerosol transport on the microphysical properties of low-level liquid clouds in the Arctic
Quentin Coopman, Timothy J. Garrett, Jérôme Riedi, Sabine Eckhardt, and Andreas Stohl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4661–4674, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4661-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4661-2016, 2016
Short summary
Ground-based remote sensing of thin clouds in the Arctic
T. J. Garrett and C. Zhao
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 1227–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-1227-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-1227-2013, 2013
Remote sensing of ice crystal asymmetry parameter using multi-directional polarization measurements – Part 2: Application to the Research Scanning Polarimeter
B. van Diedenhoven, B. Cairns, A. M. Fridlind, A. S. Ackerman, and T. J. Garrett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3185–3203, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3185-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3185-2013, 2013
Related subject area  
Dynamics of the Earth system: models
Downslope windstorms in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec during Tehuantepecer events: a numerical study with WRF high-resolution simulations
Miguel A. Prósper, Ian Sosa Tinoco, Carlos Otero-Casal, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 485–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-485-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-485-2019, 2019
Short summary
A radiative-convective model based on constrained maximum entropy production
Vincent Labarre, Didier Paillard, and Bérengère Dubrulle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 365–378, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-365-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-365-2019, 2019
Short summary
ESD Ideas: Propagation of high-frequency forcing to ice age dynamics
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky, Michel Crucifix, and Dmitry M. Volobuev
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 257–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-257-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-257-2019, 2019
Short summary
Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: predictive skill, added value of regionalization, and ensemble size dependency
Mark Reyers, Hendrik Feldmann, Sebastian Mieruch, Joaquim G. Pinto, Marianne Uhlig, Bodo Ahrens, Barbara Früh, Kameswarrao Modali, Natalie Laube, Julia Moemken, Wolfgang Müller, Gerd Schädler, and Christoph Kottmeier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 171–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019, 2019
Short summary
Climatological moisture sources for the Western North American Monsoon through a Lagrangian approach: their influence on precipitation intensity
Paulina Ordoñez, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Pedro Ribera, David Gallego, Carlos Abraham Ochoa-Moya, and Arturo Ignacio Quintanar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 59–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-59-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-59-2019, 2019
Short summary
Cited articles  
Alcott, B.: Jevons' paradox, Ecol. Econ., 54, 9–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.03.020, 2005.
American Meteorological Society: Glossary of Meteorology, Boston, available at: http://glossary.ametsoc.org, last access: March 2014.
Annila, A. and Salthe, S.: Economies evolve by energy dispersal, Entropy, 11, 606–633, https://doi.org/10.3390/e11040606, 2009.
Ayres, R. U. and Warr, B.: The Economic Growth Engine, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2009.
Publications Copernicus
Download
Notice on corrigendum

The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.

Short summary
GCMs and economic models are often coupled for climate scenarios. Here, what is examined is how well a simple non-equilibrium thermodynamic model can represent the multi-decadal growth of global civilization. Initialized with growth trends from the 1950s, the model attains high skill at hindcasting how fast the GDP and energy consumption grew during the 2000s. This opens treating the coupled economy and climate as a physically deterministic response to available flows of energy and matter.
GCMs and economic models are often coupled for climate scenarios. Here, what is examined is how...
Citation