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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 6, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 267–285, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP)

Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 267–285, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 18 May 2015

Research article | 18 May 2015

Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

I. Giuntoli et al.

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Alessandri, A., De Felice, M., Zeng, N., Mariotti, A., Pan, Y., Cherchi, A., Lee, J.-Y., Wang, B., Ha, K.-J., Ruti, P., and Artale, V.: Robust assessment of the expansion and retreat of Mediterranean climate in the 21st century, Sci. Rep., 4, 7211, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep07211, 2014.
Bosshard, T., Carambia, M., Goergen, K., Kotlarski, S., Krahe, P., Zappa, M., and Schär, C.: Quantifying uncertainty sources in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections, Water Resour. Res., 49, 1523–1536, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011533, 2013.
Dankers, R., Arnell, N. W., Clark, D. B., Falloon, P. D., Fekete, B. M., Gosling, S. N., Heinke, J., Kim, H., Masaki, Y., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Wada, Y., and Wisser, D.: First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302078110, 2013.
Ehret, U., Zehe, E., Wulfmeyer, V., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Liebert, J.: HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?", Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3391–3404, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3391-2012, 2012.
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We assessed future changes in high and low flows globally using runoff projections from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Further, we quantified the relative size of uncertainty from GHMs and from GCMs using ANOVA. We show that GCMs are the major contributors to uncertainty overall, but GHMs increase their contribution for low flows and can equal or outweigh GCM uncertainty in snow-dominated areas for both high and low flows.
We assessed future changes in high and low flows globally using runoff projections from global...
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