Journal cover
Journal topic
Earth System Dynamics
An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic
- About
- Editorial board
- Articles
- Special issues
- Highlight articles
- Manuscript tracking
- Subscribe to alerts
- Peer review
- For authors
- For reviewers
- EGU publications
- Imprint
- Data protection
- About
- Editorial board
- Articles
- Special issues
- Highlight articles
- Manuscript tracking
- Subscribe to alerts
- Peer review
- For authors
- For reviewers
- EGU publications
- Imprint
- Data protection
Journal metrics
Journal metrics
IF 3.769
4.522CiteScore
4.14SNIP 1.170
SJR 2.253
h5-index 26
index 22
Abstracted/indexed
Abstracted/indexed
Volume 4, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 439-454, 2013
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-439-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-439-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 439-454, 2013
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-439-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-439-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 28 Nov 2013
Research article | 28 Nov 2013
Do GCMs predict the climate ... or macroweather?
S. Lovejoy et al.Related authors
Shaun Lovejoy and Fabrice Lambert
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-171, 2019
Manuscript under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the statistical properties of the eight past glacial-interglacial cycles as well as subsections of a generic glacial cycle using the high-resolution dust flux dataset from the Antarctic EPICA Dome C ice core. We show that the high southern latitude climate during glacial maxima, interglacial, and glacial inception is generally more stable but more drought-prone than during mid-glacial conditions.
Shaun Lovejoy and Fabrice Lambert
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-110, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The Holocene has been strikingly long and stable when compared to earlier interglacials, and some have argued that the Holocene's exceptional stability permitted the development of agriculture and the spread of civilization. We characterize the past 800 000 years using a high resolution dust record from an Antarctic ice core. We find that although the Holocene is particularly stable when compared to other interglacials, it is not an outlier and other factors may have kickstarted civilization.
Shaun Lovejoy and Costas Varotsos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 133-150, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-133-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-133-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the statistical properties of solar, volcanic and combined forcings over the range from 1 to 1000 years to see over which scale ranges they additively combine, a prediction of linear response. The main findings are (a) that the variability in the Zebiac–Cane model and GCMs are too weak at centennial and longer scales; (b) for longer than ≈ 50 years, the forcings combine subadditively; and (c) at shorter scales, strong (intermittency, e.g. volcanic) forcings are nonlinear.
F. Landais, F. Schmidt, and S. Lovejoy
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 713-722, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-713-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-713-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In the present study, we investigate the scaling properties of the topography of Mars. Planetary topographic fields are well known to exhibit (mono)fractal behavior. Indeed, fractal formalism is efficient in reproducing the variability observed in topography. Our results suggest a multifractal behavior from the planetary scale down to 10 km. From 10 km to 300 m, the topography seems to be simple monofractal.
S. Lovejoy, L. del Rio Amador, and R. Hébert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 637-658, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-637-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-637-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical climate models forecast the weather well beyond the deterministic limit. In this “macroweather” regime, they are random number generators. Stochastic models can have more realistic noises and can be forced to converge to the real-world climate. Existing stochastic models do not exploit the very long atmospheric and oceanic memories. With skill up to decades, our new ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) exploits this to make forecasts more accurate than GCMs.
C. A. Varotsos, S. Lovejoy, N. V. Sarlis, C. G. Tzanis, and M. N. Efstathiou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7301-7306, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7301-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7301-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Varotsos et al. (Theor. Appl. Climatol., 114, 725–727, 2013) found that the solar ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths exhibit 1/f-type power-law correlations. In this study, we show that the residues of the spectral solar incident flux with respect to the Planck law over a wider range of wavelengths (i.e. UV-visible) have a scaling regime too.
J. Pinel and S. Lovejoy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3195-3210, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3195-2014, 2014
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221-250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014
A. Gires, I. Tchiguirinskaia, D. Schertzer, and S. Lovejoy
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 343-356, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-343-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-343-2013, 2013
Rosa Vicari, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, and Daniel Schertzer
Geosci. Commun., 2, 25-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-25-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-25-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The resilience of our cities to climate risks relies on the capacity of urban communities to communicate. This paper presents a study aimed at understanding how to assess the impact of public outreach campaigns on urban resilience. The paper reviews resilience assessment methods, highlights those frameworks that consider communication impacts, and presents a range of experiments aimed at testing novel
resilience communication indicators.
Shaun Lovejoy and Fabrice Lambert
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-171, 2019
Manuscript under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the statistical properties of the eight past glacial-interglacial cycles as well as subsections of a generic glacial cycle using the high-resolution dust flux dataset from the Antarctic EPICA Dome C ice core. We show that the high southern latitude climate during glacial maxima, interglacial, and glacial inception is generally more stable but more drought-prone than during mid-glacial conditions.
Shaun Lovejoy and Fabrice Lambert
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-110, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The Holocene has been strikingly long and stable when compared to earlier interglacials, and some have argued that the Holocene's exceptional stability permitted the development of agriculture and the spread of civilization. We characterize the past 800 000 years using a high resolution dust record from an Antarctic ice core. We find that although the Holocene is particularly stable when compared to other interglacials, it is not an outlier and other factors may have kickstarted civilization.
Rosa Vicari, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, and Daniel Schertzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-200, 2018
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Nowadays, when extreme weather affects an urban area, huge amounts of digital data are spontaneously produced by the population on the Web. These
digital trailscan provide an insight on the interactions between climate related risks and the social perception of these risks. The experiments presented in this paper show that big data exploration techniques can bring out the most central issues and actors in the debate and explore how it affects urban resilience.
Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, and Daniel Schertzer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 941-950, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-941-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-941-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Hydrology, Meteorology, and Complexity laboratory of École des Ponts ParisTech (hmco.enpc.fr) has made a data set of optical disdrometer measurements available that come from a campaign involving three collocated devices from two different manufacturers, relying on different underlying technologies (one Campbell Scientific PWS100 and two OTT Parsivel2 instruments). The campaign took place in January–February 2016 in the Paris area (France).
Abdellah Ichiba, Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Daniel Schertzer, Philippe Bompard, and Marie-Claire Ten Veldhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 331-350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-331-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-331-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a two-step investigation to illustrate the extent of scale effects in urban hydrology. First, fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependency observed within GIS data inputted in urban hydrological models. Then an intensive multi-scale modelling work was carried out to confirm effects on model performances. The model was implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 to 5 m. Results allow the understanding of scale challenges in hydrology modelling.
Daniel Wolfensberger, Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Daniel Schertzer, and Alexis Berne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14253-14273, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14253-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14253-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation intensities simulated by the COSMO weather prediction model are compared to radar observations over a range of spatial and temporal scales using the universal multifractal framework. Our results highlight the strong influence of meteorological and topographical features on the multifractal characteristics of precipitation. Moreover, the influence of the subgrid parameterizations of COSMO is clearly visible by a break in the scaling properties that is absent from the radar data.
Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Daniel Schertzer, Susana Ochoa-Rodriguez, Patrick Willems, Abdellah Ichiba, Li-Pen Wang, Rui Pina, Johan Van Assel, Guendalina Bruni, Damian Murla Tuyls, and Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2361-2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2361-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2361-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Data from 10 urban or peri-urban catchments located in five EU countries are used to analyze the imperviousness distribution and sewer network geometry. Consistent scale invariant features are retrieved for both (fractal dimensions can be defined), which enables to define a level of urbanization. Imperviousness representation in operational model is also found to exhibit scale-invariant features (even multifractality). The research was carried out as part of the UE INTERREG IV RainGain project.
Auguste Gires, Catherine L. Muller, Marie-Agathe le Gueut, and Daniel Schertzer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1751-1763, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1751-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1751-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Educational activities are now a common channel to increase impact of research projects. Here, we present innovative activities for young children that aim to help them (and their teachers) grasp some of the complex underlying scientific issues in environmental fields. The activities developed are focused on rainfall: observation and modeling of rain drop size and the succession of dry and rainy days, and writing of a scientific book. All activities were implemented in classrooms.
Shaun Lovejoy and Costas Varotsos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 133-150, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-133-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-133-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the statistical properties of solar, volcanic and combined forcings over the range from 1 to 1000 years to see over which scale ranges they additively combine, a prediction of linear response. The main findings are (a) that the variability in the Zebiac–Cane model and GCMs are too weak at centennial and longer scales; (b) for longer than ≈ 50 years, the forcings combine subadditively; and (c) at shorter scales, strong (intermittency, e.g. volcanic) forcings are nonlinear.
F. Landais, F. Schmidt, and S. Lovejoy
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 713-722, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-713-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-713-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In the present study, we investigate the scaling properties of the topography of Mars. Planetary topographic fields are well known to exhibit (mono)fractal behavior. Indeed, fractal formalism is efficient in reproducing the variability observed in topography. Our results suggest a multifractal behavior from the planetary scale down to 10 km. From 10 km to 300 m, the topography seems to be simple monofractal.
S. Lovejoy, L. del Rio Amador, and R. Hébert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 637-658, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-637-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-637-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical climate models forecast the weather well beyond the deterministic limit. In this “macroweather” regime, they are random number generators. Stochastic models can have more realistic noises and can be forced to converge to the real-world climate. Existing stochastic models do not exploit the very long atmospheric and oceanic memories. With skill up to decades, our new ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) exploits this to make forecasts more accurate than GCMs.
C. A. Varotsos, S. Lovejoy, N. V. Sarlis, C. G. Tzanis, and M. N. Efstathiou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7301-7306, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7301-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7301-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Varotsos et al. (Theor. Appl. Climatol., 114, 725–727, 2013) found that the solar ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths exhibit 1/f-type power-law correlations. In this study, we show that the residues of the spectral solar incident flux with respect to the Planck law over a wider range of wavelengths (i.e. UV-visible) have a scaling regime too.
J. Pinel and S. Lovejoy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3195-3210, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3195-2014, 2014
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221-250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014
A. Gires, I. Tchiguirinskaia, D. Schertzer, and S. Lovejoy
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 343-356, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-343-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-343-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Earth system change: climate prediction
Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018
September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach
ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing
Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake
A mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraints
Seasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 models
Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions
Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble
Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change
Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal
Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols
Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties
Return levels of temperature extremes in southern Pakistan
On the meaning of independence in climate science
Minimal change of thermal continentality in Slovakia within the period 1961–2013
Lifetime of soil moisture perturbations in a coupled land–atmosphere simulation
The ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM): using scaling to forecast global-scale macroweather from months to decades
Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate
Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime
Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models
A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach
Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models
A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties
On the determination of the global cloud feedback from satellite measurements
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271-286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.
Monica Ionita, Klaus Grosfeld, Patrick Scholz, Renate Treffeisen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.
Gab Abramowitz, Nadja Herger, Ethan Gutmann, Dorit Hammerling, Reto Knutti, Martin Leduc, Ruth Lorenz, Robert Pincus, and Gavin A. Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Best estimates of future climate projections typically rely on a range of climate models from different international research institutions. However, it is unclear how independent these different estimates are, and, for example, the degree to which their agreement implies robustness. This work presents a review of the varied and disparate attempts to quantify and address model dependence within multi-model climate projection ensembles.
Nicole S. Lovenduski, Stephen G. Yeager, Keith Lindsay, and Matthew C. Long
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 45-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows that the absorption of carbon dioxide by the ocean is predictable several years in advance. This is important because fossil-fuel-derived carbon dioxide is largely responsible for anthropogenic global warming and because carbon dioxide emission management and global carbon cycle budgeting exercises can benefit from foreknowledge of ocean carbon absorption. The promising results from this new forecast system justify the need for additional oceanic observations.
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999-1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate change. The technique of
emergent constraintsuses observations of current climate to improve those predictions, using relationships between different climate models. Our paper first classifies the different uses of the technique, and continues with proposing a mathematical justification for their use. We also highlight when the application of emergent constraints might give biased predictions.
Bo Huang, Ulrich Cubasch, and Christopher Kadow
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 985-997, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We find that CMIP5 models show more significant improvement in predicting zonal winds with initialisation than without initialisation based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the EASM. Given the initial conditions, two models improve the seasonal prediction skill of the EASM, while one model decreases it. The models have different responses to initialisation due to their ability to depict the EASM–ESNO coupled mode.
Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Holger Pohlmann, and Claudia Timmreck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 701-715, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018, 2018
Jiawei Liu, Haiming Xu, and Jiechun Deng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 427-439, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-427-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-427-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A novel method based on
present–futurerelationship in observed climate and model-simulated future climate is applied to give more reliable projections of East Asian summer monsoon intensity and associated precipitation changes at 1.5 and 2 °C warming levels. Projected future changes suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity.
Michael Wehner, Dáithí Stone, Dann Mitchell, Hideo Shiogama, Erich Fischer, Lise S. Graff, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Ludwig Lierhammer, Benjamin Sanderson, and Harinarayan Krishnan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 299-311, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change challenged the scientific community to describe the impacts of stabilizing the global temperature at its 21st Conference of Parties. A specific target of 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels had not been seriously considered by the climate modeling community prior to the Paris Agreement. This paper analyzes heat waves in simulations designed for this target. We find there are reductions in extreme temperature compared to a 2 °C target.
Peter Greve, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 227-240, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-227-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-227-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing projected hydroclimatological changes is crucial, but associated with large uncertainties. We statistically assess here the response of precipitation and water availability to global temperature change, enabling us to estimate the significance of drying/wetting tendencies under anthropogenic climate change. We further show that opting for a 1.5 K warming target just slightly influences the mean response but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes.
Dana Ehlert and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 197-210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a global climate model to explore the extent to which sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the ocean is reversible if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) declines. It is found that sea level continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to the pre-industrial level for over thousand years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration.
Michael F. Wehner, Kevin A. Reed, Burlen Loring, Dáithí Stone, and Harinarayan Krishnan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 187-195, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios using a high-resolution global climate model. We find more frequent and intense tropical cyclones, but a reduction in weaker storms.
Nadja Herger, Gab Abramowitz, Reto Knutti, Oliver Angélil, Karsten Lehmann, and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 135-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Users presented with large multi-model ensembles commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate, ignoring the issue of near replication of some climate models. We present an efficient and flexible tool that finds a subset of models with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments.
Maida Zahid, Richard Blender, Valerio Lucarini, and Maria Caterina Bramati
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1263-1278, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1263-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1263-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The southern part of Pakistan (Sindh province) has been exposed to frequent and intense temperature extremes recently and is highly vulnerable to their impacts due to lack of information on recurrence of extremes. In this paper for the first time we estimated the return levels of daily maximum temperatures and daily maximum wet-bulb temperatures over the different return periods in Sindh, which would help the local administrations to prioritize the regions in terms of adaptations.
James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 211-224, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-211-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-211-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The concept of independence has been frequently raised in climate science, but has rarely been defined and discussed in a theoretically robust and quantifiable manner. Improved understanding of this topic is critical to better understanding of climate change. In this paper, we introduce a unifying approach based on the statistical definition of independence, and illustrate with simple examples how it can be applied to practical questions.
Jozef Vilček, Jaroslav Škvarenina, Jaroslav Vido, Paulína Nalevanková, Radoslav Kandrík, and Jana Škvareninová
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 735-744, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-735-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-735-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Thermal continentality plays an important role not only in the basic characterisation of the climate in particular regions but also in the phytogeographic distribution of plants and ecosystem formation. Due to ongoing climate change, questions surrounding the changes of thermal continentality are very relevant. Our results show that the continentality of Slovakia increased in the period 1961 to 2013; however, this trend is not significant.
T. Stacke and S. Hagemann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 1-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-1-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the lifetime of soil moisture perturbations using an atmosphere-land GCM. We find memory of up to 9 months for root zone soil moisture. Interactions with other surface states result in significant but short-lived anomalies in surface temperature and more stable anomalies in leaf carbon content. As these anomalies can recur repeatedly, e.g. due to interactions with a deep-soil moisture reservoir, we conclude that soil moisture initialization may impact climate predictions.
S. Lovejoy, L. del Rio Amador, and R. Hébert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 637-658, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-637-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-637-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical climate models forecast the weather well beyond the deterministic limit. In this “macroweather” regime, they are random number generators. Stochastic models can have more realistic noises and can be forced to converge to the real-world climate. Existing stochastic models do not exploit the very long atmospheric and oceanic memories. With skill up to decades, our new ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) exploits this to make forecasts more accurate than GCMs.
E. A. Irvine and K. P. Shine
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 555-568, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-555-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-555-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Aviation impacts on climate via contrails, which are often clearly visible in the sky. Contrail formation requires particular cold/moist atmospheric conditions at aircraft cruise altitudes. Climate change is expected to change these conditions. Using simulations from several climate models we conclude that, by 2100, the probability of contrail formation could decrease from 11 to 7%, mostly due to changing conditions in the tropics. There is no consensus on the likely change in mid-latitudes.
N. Wanders, Y. Wada, and H. A. J. Van Lanen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 1-15, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-1-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-1-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows the impact of a changing climate on hydrological drought. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a substantial influence on the way in which drought impact is calculated. The obtained results show that an adaptive threshold approach is the way forward to study the impact of climate change on the identification and characterization of hydrological drought events.
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271-293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, 2014
S. Hempel, K. Frieler, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, and F. Piontek
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 219-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013, 2013
B. B. B. Booth, D. Bernie, D. McNeall, E. Hawkins, J. Caesar, C. Boulton, P. Friedlingstein, and D. M. H. Sexton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 95-108, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013, 2013
M. Perrette, F. Landerer, R. Riva, K. Frieler, and M. Meinshausen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 11-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013, 2013
T. Masters
Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 97-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-97-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-97-2012, 2012
Cited articles
Blender, R., Fraedrich, K., and Hunt, B.: Millennial climate variability: GCM-simulation and Greenland ice cores, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L04710, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024919, 2006.
Bryson, R. A.: The Paradigm of Climatology: An Essay, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 450–456, 2007.
Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J., Yin, X., Gleason, B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R. I., Grant, A. N., Groisman, P. Y., Jones, P. D., Kruger, A. C., Kruk, M., Marshall, G. J., Maugeri, M., Mok, H. Y., Nordli, Ø., Ross, T. F., Trigo, R. M., Wang, X. L., Woodruff, S. D., and Worley, S. J.: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776, 2011.
Crowley, T. J.: Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years, Science, 289, 270–273, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.270, 2000.
Crowley, T. J., Zielinski, G., Vinther, B., Udisti, R., Kreutzs, K., Cole-Dai, J., and Castellano, E.: Volcanism and the Little Ice Age, PAGES Newslett., 16, 22–23, 2008.
Eichner, J. F., Koscielny-Bunde, E., Bunde, A., Havlin, S., and Schellnhuber, H.-J.: Power-law persistance and trends in the atmosphere: A detailed studey of long temperature records, Phys. Rev. E, 68, 046133-40, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.68.046133, 2003.
Fichefet, T. and Morales Maqueda, M. A.: Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 12609–12646, 1997.
Fraedrich, K. and Blender, K.: Scaling of Atmosphere and Ocean Temperature Correlations in Observations and Climate Models, Phys. Rev. Lett., 90, 108501–108504, 2003.
Fraedrich, K., Blender, R., and Zhu, X.: Continuum Climate Variability: Long-Term Memory, Scaling, and 1/f-Noise, Int. J. Modern Phys. B, 23, 5403–5416, 2009.
Franzke, C.: Long-range dependence and climate noise characteristics of Antarctica temperature data, J. Climate, 23, 6074–6081, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCL13654.1, 2010.
Franzke, C.: Nonlinear trends, long-range dependence and climate noise properties of temperature, J. Climate, 25, 4172–4183, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00293.1, 2012.
Franzke, J., Esper, J., and Brönnimann, S.: Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 360–364, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate1816, 2013.
Gao, C. G., Robock, A., and Ammann, C.: Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: and improved ice core-based index for climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D23111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239, 2008.
Hourdin, F., Musat, I., Bony, S., Braconnot, P., Codron, F., Dufresne, J.-L., Fairhead, L., Filiberti, M.-A., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Krinner, G., LeVan, P., Li, Z.-X., and Lott, F.: The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection, Clim. Dynam., 27, 787–813, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0158-0, 2006.
Huang, S. P., Pollack, H. N., and Shen, P.-Y.: Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures, Nature, 403, 756–758, 2000.
Huybers, P. and Curry, W.: Links between annual, Milankovitch and continuum temperature variability, Nature, 441, 329–332, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04745, 2006.
Jungclaus, J. H., Keenlyside, N., Botzet, M., Haak, H., Luo, J.-J., Latif, M., Marotzke, J., Mikolajewicz, U., and Roeckner, E.: Ocean Circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPIOM, J. Climate, 19, 3952–3972, 2006.
Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Timmreck, C., Reick, C. H., Brovkin, V., Six, K., Segschneider, J., Giorgetta, M. A., Crowley, T. J., Pongratz, J., Krivova, N. A., Vieira, L. E., Solanki, S. K., Klocke, D., Botzet, M., Esch, M., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Raddatz, T. J., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Widmann, H., Claussen, M., Stevens, B., and Marotzke, J.: Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 6, 723–737, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-723-2010, 2010.
Kantelhardt, J. W., Zscchegner, S. A., Koscielny-Bunde, K., Havlin, S., Bunde, A., and Stanley, H. E.: Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series, Physica A, 316, 87–114, 2002.
Krinner, G., Viovy, N., De Noblet-Ducoudre, N., Ogeé, J., Polcher, J., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., and Prentice, I. C.: A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, Gb1015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gb002199, 2005.
Krivova, N. A. and Solanki, S. K.: Models of Solar Irradiance Variations: Current Status, J. Astrophys. Aston., 29, 151–158, 2008.
Krivova, N. A., Balmaceda, L., and Solanski, S. K.: Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface magnetic field flux, Astron. Astrophys., 467, 335–346, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20066725, 2007.
Lanfredi, M., Simoniello, T., Cuomo, V., and Macchiato, M.: Discriminating low frequency components from long range persistent fluctuations in daily atmospheric temperature variability, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 4537–4544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-4537-2009, 2009.
Lean, J. L.: Evolution of the Sun's Spectral Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2425–2428, 2000.
Lennartz, S. and Bunde, A.: Trend evaluation in records with long term memory: Application to global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L16706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039516, 2009.
Ljundqvist, F. C.: A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra – tropical Northern Hemisphere during the last two millennia, Geograf. Ann. A, 92, 339–351 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0459.2010.00399.x, 2010.
Lovejoy, S.: Scaling fluctuation analysis and statistical hypothesis testing of anthropogenic warming, Clim. Dynam., submitted, 2013a.
Lovejoy, S.: What is climate?, EOS, 94, 1–2, 2013b.
Lovejoy, S. and Schertzer, D.: Scale invariance in climatological temperatures and the spectral plateau, Ann. Geophys., 4B, 401–410, 1986.
Lovejoy, S. and Schertzer, D.: Towards a new synthesis for atmospheric dynamics: space-time cascades, Atmos. Res., 96, 1–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.01.004, 2010.
Lovejoy, S. and Schertzer, D.: Haar wavelets, fluctuations and structure functions: convenient choices for geophysics, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 19, 513–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-19-513-2012, 2012a.
Lovejoy, S. and Schertzer, D.: Low frequency weather and the emergence of the Climate, in: Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective, edited by: Sharma, A. S., Bunde, A., Baker, D., and Dimri, V. P., AGU monographs, Washington, D.C., 231–254, 2012b.
Lovejoy, S. and Schertzer, D.: Stochastic and scaling climate sensitivities: solar, volcanic and orbital forcings, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L11702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051871, 2012c.
Lovejoy, S. and Schertzer, D.: The Weather and Climate: Emergent Laws and Multifractal Cascades, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 496 pp., 2013.
Madec, G., Delecluse, P., Imbard, M., and Lévy, C.: OPA 8.1 Ocean General Circulation Model Reference Manual Rep., Laboratoire d'Océanographie DYnamique et de Climatologie, IPSL, Paris, France, 97 pp., 1998.
Mann, M. E., Cane, M. A., Zebiak, S. E., and Clement, A.: Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical pacific over the past 1000 years, J. Climate, 18, 447–456, 2005.
Moberg, A., Sonnechkin, D. M., Holmgren, K., and Datsenko, N. M.: Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data, Nature, 433, 613–617, 2005.
Monetti, R. A., Havlin, S., and Bunde, A.: Long-term persistance in the sea surface temeprature fluctuations, Physica A, 320, 581–589, 2003.
Osborn, T. J., Raper, S. C. B., and Briffa, K. R.: Simulated climate change during the last 1,000 years: comparing the ECHO-G general circulation model with the MAGICC simple climate model, Clim. Dynam., 27, 185–197, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0129-5, 2006.
Pelletier, J. D.: The power spectral density of atmospheric temperature from scales of 10** −2 to 10**6 yr, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 158, 157–164, 1998.
Peng, C.-K., Buldyrev, S. V., Havlin, S., Simons, M., Stanley, H. E., and Goldberger, A. L.: Mosaic organisation of DNA nucleotides, Phys. Rev. E, 49, 1685–1689, 1994.
Pielke, R.: Climate prediction as an initial value problem, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 2743–2746, 1998.
Raddatz, T. J., Reick, C. H., Knorr, W., Kattge, J., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Schnitzler, K. G., Wetzel, P., and Jungclaus, J.: Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate-carbon feedback during the twenty-first century?, Clim. Dynam., 29, 565–574, 2007.
Rayner, N. A., Brohan, P., Parker, D. E., Folland, C. K., Kennedy, J. J., Vanicek, M., Ansell, T., and Tett, S. F. B.: Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in marine temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: the HadSST2 dataset, J. Climate, 19, 446–469, 2006.
Roeckner, E., Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Christoph, M., Claussen, M., Dümenil, L., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U.: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: model description and simulation of present-day climate Rep., Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, 90 pp., 1996.
Rybski, D., Bunde, A., Havlin, S., and von Storch, H.: Long-term persistance in climate and the detection problem, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06718, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025591, 2006.
Rybski, D., Bunde, A., and von Storch, H.: Long-term memory in 1000-year simulated temperature records, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008568, 2008.
Schertzer, D. and Lovejoy, S.: Physical modeling and Analysis of Rain and Clouds by Anisotropic Scaling of Multiplicative Processes, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 9693–9714, 1987.
Schertzer, D. and Lovejoy, S.: Multifractals, Generalized Scale Invariance and Complexity in Geophysics, Int. J. Bifurcat. Chaos, 21, 3417–3456, 2011.
Schertzer D., Lovejoy, S., Schmitt, F., Tchiguirinskaia, I., and Marsan, D.: Multifractal cascade dynamics and turbulent intermittency, Fractals, 5, 427–471, 1997.
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F. and Vieira, L. E. A.: Present day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: Comparison to in-situ, satellite and reanalysis data, J. Climate, 19, 153–192, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3612.1, 2006.
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011, 2011.
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.1), Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 185–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-185-2012, 2012.
Schmidt, G. A., Annan, J. D., Bartlein, P. J., Cook, B. I., Guilyardi, E., Hargreaves, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., LeGrande, A. N., Konecky, B., Lovejoy, S., Mann, M. E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Thompson, D., Timmermann, A., Tremblay, L.-B., and Yiou, P.: Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5, Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 775–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-775-2013, 2013.
Schmitt, F., Lovejoy, S., and Schertzer, D.: Multifractal analysis of the Greenland Ice-core project climate data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 1689–1692, 1995.
Shapiro, A. I., Schmutz, W., Rozanov, E., Schoell, M., Haberreiter, M., Shapiro, A. V., and Nyeki, S.: A new approach to long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing, Astron. Astrophys., 529, A67, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201016173, 2011.
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M. M. B., and Miller Jr., H. L. (Eds.): Climate Change 2007 The physical science basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.
Steinhilber, F., Beer, J., and Frohlich, C.: Total solar irradiance during the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19704 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040142, 2009.
Vieira, L. E. A., Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A., and Usoskin, I.: Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene, Astron. Astrophys., 531, A6, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201015843, 2011.
von Storch, H., Zorita, E., Jones, J. M., Dimitriev, Y., Gonzalez-Rouco, F., and Tett, S. F. B.: Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data, Science, 306, 679–682, 2004.
Vyushin, D., Zhidkov, I., Havlin, S., Bunde, A., and Brenner, S.: Volcanic forcing improves Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled, Geophy. Res. Lett., 31, L10206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019499, 2004.
Wang, Y.-M., Lean, J. L., and Sheeley, N. R. J.: Modeling the Sun's magnetic field and irradiance since 1713, Astrophys J., 625, 522–538, 2005.
Wetzel, P., Maier-Reimer, E., Botzet, M., Jungclaus, J. H., Keenlyside, N., and Latif, M.: Effects of ocean biology on the penetrative radiation on a coupled climate model, J. Climate, 19, 3973–3987, 2006.
Wolff, J. O., Maier-Reimer, E., and Legutke, S.: The Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation Model HOPE Rep., German Climate Computer Center (DKRZ), Hamburg, Germany, 98 pp., 1997.
Wunsch, C.: The spectral energy description of climate change including the 100 ky energy, Clim. Dynam., 20, 353–363, 2003.
Zhu, X., Fraederich, L., and Blender, R.: Variability regimes of simulated Atlantic MOC, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L21603, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027291, 2006.
Earth System Dynamics
An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
