Research article
02 Aug 2013
Research article | 02 Aug 2013
The sensitivity of the modeled energy budget and hydrological cycle to CO2 and solar forcing
N. Schaller et al.
Related authors
Synoptic-scale controls of fog and low clouds in the Namib Desert
Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Julia Fuchs, Peter Knippertz, Marco Gaetani, Julian Quinting, Sebastian Sippel, and Roland Vogt
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-924,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-924, 2019
Manuscript under review for ACP
Short summary
ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
Short summary
ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing
Gab Abramowitz, Nadja Herger, Ethan Gutmann, Dorit Hammerling, Reto Knutti, Martin Leduc, Ruth Lorenz, Robert Pincus, and Gavin A. Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, 2019
Short summary
Aerosol backscatter profiles from ceilometers: validation of water vapor correction in the framework of CeiLinEx2015
Matthias Wiegner, Ina Mattis, Margit Pattantyús-Ábrahám, Juan Antonio Bravo-Aranda, Yann Poltera, Alexander Haefele, Maxime Hervo, Ulrich Görsdorf, Ronny Leinweber, Josef Gasteiger, Martial Haeffelin, Frank Wagner, Jan Cermak, Katerina Komínková, Mike Brettle, Christoph Münkel, and Kornelia Pönitz
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 471–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-471-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-471-2019, 2019
Short summary
Solar “brightening” impact on summer surface ozone between 1990 and 2010 in Europe – a model sensitivity study of the influence of the aerosol–radiation interactions
Emmanouil Oikonomakis, Sebnem Aksoyoglu, Martin Wild, Giancarlo Ciarelli, Urs Baltensperger, and André Stephan Henry Prévôt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9741–9765, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9741-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9741-2018, 2018
Short summary
Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties
Nadja Herger, Gab Abramowitz, Reto Knutti, Oliver Angélil, Karsten Lehmann, and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 135–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018, 2018
Short summary
Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Yangyang Xu, Claudia Tebaldi, Michael Wehner, Brian O'Neill, Alexandra Jahn, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Warren G. Strand, Lei Lin, Reto Knutti, and Jean Francois Lamarque
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 827–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017, 2017
Short summary
The Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) version 2017: a database for worldwide measured surface energy fluxes
Martin Wild, Atsumu Ohmura, Christoph Schär, Guido Müller, Doris Folini, Matthias Schwarz, Maria Zyta Hakuba, and Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 601–613, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-601-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-601-2017, 2017
Short summary
The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6
Nathan P. Gillett, Hideo Shiogama, Bernd Funke, Gabriele Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Katja Matthes, Benjamin D. Santer, Daithi Stone, and Claudia Tebaldi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3685–3697, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, 2016
Short summary
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Brian C. O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, George Hurtt, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jason Lowe, Gerald A. Meehl, Richard Moss, Keywan Riahi, and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016
Short summary
Detection of dimming/brightening in Italy from homogenized all-sky and clear-sky surface solar radiation records and underlying causes (1959–2013)
Veronica Manara, Michele Brunetti, Angela Celozzi, Maurizio Maugeri, Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo, and Martin Wild
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 11145–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11145-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11145-2016, 2016
Short summary
An observation-constrained multi-physics WRF ensemble for simulating European mega heat waves
A. I. Stegehuis, R. Vautard, P. Ciais, A. J. Teuling, D. G. Miralles, and M. Wild
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2285–2298, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, 2015
Short summary
Particulate matter, air quality and climate: lessons learned and future needs
S. Fuzzi, U. Baltensperger, K. Carslaw, S. Decesari, H. Denier van der Gon, M. C. Facchini, D. Fowler, I. Koren, B. Langford, U. Lohmann, E. Nemitz, S. Pandis, I. Riipinen, Y. Rudich, M. Schaap, J. G. Slowik, D. V. Spracklen, E. Vignati, M. Wild, M. Williams, and S. Gilardoni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8217–8299, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8217-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8217-2015, 2015
Short summary
Implementation and validation of a Wilks-type multi-site daily precipitation generator over a typical Alpine river catchment
D. E. Keller, A. M. Fischer, C. Frei, M. A. Liniger, C. Appenzeller, and R. Knutti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2163–2177, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2163-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2163-2015, 2015
Effect of water vapor on the determination of aerosol direct radiative effect based on the AERONET fluxes
J. Huttunen, A. Arola, G. Myhre, A. V. Lindfors, T. Mielonen, S. Mikkonen, J. S. Schafer, S. N. Tripathi, M. Wild, M. Komppula, and K. E. J. Lehtinen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6103–6110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6103-2014,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6103-2014, 2014
Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979–2012: impact of climate and land-use changes
T. Stavrakou, J.-F. Müller, M. Bauwens, I. De Smedt, M. Van Roozendael, A. Guenther, M. Wild, and X. Xia
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4587–4605, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4587-2014,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4587-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Heat stress risk in European dairy cattle husbandry under different climate change scenarios – uncertainties and potential impacts
Sabrina Hempel, Christoph Menz, Severino Pinto, Elena Galán, David Janke, Fernando Estellés, Theresa Müschner-Siemens, Xiaoshuai Wang, Julia Heinicke, Guoqiang Zhang, Barbara Amon, Agustín del Prado, and Thomas Amon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 859–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-859-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-859-2019, 2019
Short summary
The economically optimal warming limit of the planet
Falko Ueckerdt, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Leonie Wenz, Gunnar Luderer, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 741–763, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, 2019
Short summary
Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi
Lise S. Graff, Trond Iversen, Ingo Bethke, Jens B. Debernard, Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Alf Kirkevåg, Camille Li, and Dirk J. L. Olivié
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 569–598, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-569-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-569-2019, 2019
Short summary
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice-shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-23,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-23, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
Short summary
Population exposure to droughts in China under the 1.5 °C global warming target
Jie Chen, Yujie Liu, Tao Pan, Yanhua Liu, Fubao Sun, and Quansheng Ge
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1097–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1097-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming
Jaime B. Palter, Thomas L. Frölicher, David Paynter, and Jasmin G. John
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 817–828, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018, 2018
Short summary
Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios
Monika J. Barcikowska, Scott J. Weaver, Frauke Feser, Simone Russo, Frederik Schenk, Dáithí A. Stone, Michael F. Wehner, and Matthias Zahn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 679–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018, 2018
European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models
Erik Kjellström, Grigory Nikulin, Gustav Strandberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Daniela Jacob, Klaus Keuler, Geert Lenderink, Erik van Meijgaard, Christoph Schär, Samuel Somot, Silje Lund Sørland, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, 2018
Short summary
Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts
Camille Li, Clio Michel, Lise Seland Graff, Ingo Bethke, Giuseppe Zappa, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Erich Fischer, Ben J. Harvey, Trond Iversen, Martin P. King, Harinarayan Krishnan, Ludwig Lierhammer, Daniel Mitchell, John Scinocca, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí A. Stone, and Justin J. Wettstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 359–382, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018, 2018
Short summary
A bias-corrected CMIP5 dataset for Africa using the CDF-t method – a contribution to agricultural impact studies
Adjoua Moise Famien, Serge Janicot, Abe Delfin Ochou, Mathieu Vrac, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, and Thomas Noël
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 313–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-313-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-313-2018, 2018
Short summary
Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds
Wenbin Liu, Fubao Sun, Wee Ho Lim, Jie Zhang, Hong Wang, Hideo Shiogama, and Yuqing Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 267–283, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018, 2018
Short summary
Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests
Yannick Le Page, Douglas Morton, Corinne Hartin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, José Miguel Cardoso Pereira, George Hurtt, and Ghassem Asrar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1237–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017, 2017
Short summary
Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Yangyang Xu, Claudia Tebaldi, Michael Wehner, Brian O'Neill, Alexandra Jahn, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Warren G. Strand, Lei Lin, Reto Knutti, and Jean Francois Lamarque
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 827–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017, 2017
Short summary
Flexible parameter-sparse global temperature time profiles that stabilise at 1.5 and 2.0 °C
Chris Huntingford, Hui Yang, Anna Harper, Peter M. Cox, Nicola Gedney, Eleanor J. Burke, Jason A. Lowe, Garry Hayman, William J. Collins, Stephen M. Smith, and Edward Comyn-Platt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 617–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, 2017
Short summary
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tabea K. Lissner, Erich M. Fischer, Jan Wohland, Mahé Perrette, Antonius Golly, Joeri Rogelj, Katelin Childers, Jacob Schewe, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, William Hare, and Michiel Schaeffer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 327–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016, 2016
Short summary
A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations
S. Sippel, F. E. L. Otto, M. Forkel, M. R. Allen, B. P. Guillod, M. Heimann, M. Reichstein, S. I. Seneviratne, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-71-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-71-2016, 2016
Short summary
Multi-model climate impact assessment and intercomparison for three large-scale river basins on three continents
T. Vetter, S. Huang, V. Aich, T. Yang, X. Wang, V. Krysanova, and F. Hattermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 17–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-17-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-17-2015, 2015
Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland
M. Hirschi, S. Stoeckli, M. Dubrovsky, C. Spirig, P. Calanca, M. W. Rotach, A. M. Fischer, B. Duffy, and J. Samietz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 33–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-33-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-33-2012, 2012
Cited articles
Alessandri, A., Fogli, P., Vichi, M., and Zeng, N.: Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective, Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 199–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-199-2012, 2012.
Allan, R. P.: Variability in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D22105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007304, 2006.
Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092, 2002.
Andrews, T.: Forcing and response in simulated 20th and 21st century surface energy and precipitation trends, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D17110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011749, 2009.
Andrews, T. and Forster, P. M.: CO
2 forcing induces semi-direct effects with consequences for climate feedback interpretations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L04802, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032273, 2008.
Andrews, T. and Forster, P. M.: The transient response of global-mean precipitation to increasing carbon dioxide levels, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 025212, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025212, 2010.
Andrews, T., Forster, P. M., and Gregory, J. M.: A Surface Energy Perspective on Climate Change, J. Climate, 22, 2557–2570, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2759.1, 2009.
Andrews, T., Forster, P. M., Boucher, O., Bellouin, N., and Jones, A.: Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043991, 2010.
Andrews, T., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Boucher, O., and Forster, P. M.: A regional and global analysis of carbon dioxide physiological forcing and its impact on climate, Clim. Dynam., 36, 783–792, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0742-1, 2011.
Andrews, T., Ringer, M. A., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Webb, M. J., and Collins, W. J.: Sensitivity of an Earth system climate model to idealized radiative forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051942, 2012.
Bala, G., Duffy, P. B., and Taylor, K. E.: Impact of geoengineering schemes on the global hydrological cycle, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 7664–7669, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0711648105, 2008.
Bala, G., Caldeira, K., and Nemani, R.: Fast versus slow response in climate change: implications for the global hydrological cycle, Clim. Dynam., 35, 423–434, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0583-y, 2010.
Barnett, T., Zwiers, F., Hegerl, G., Allen, M., Crowley, T., Gillett, N., Hasselmann, K., Jones, P., Santer, B., Schnur, R., Scott, P., Taylor, K., and Tett, S.: Detecting and attributing external influences on the climate system: A review of recent advances, J. Climate, 18, 1291–1314, 2005.
Bender, F. A.-M.: Planetary albedo in strongly forced climate, as simulated by the CMIP3 models, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 105, 529–535, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0411-2, 2011.
Boer, G. J.: Climate change and the regulation of the surface moisture and energy budgets, Clim. Dynam., 8, 225–239, 1993.
Bosilovich, M. G., Chen, J. Y., Robertson, F. R., and Adler, R. F.: Evaluation of global precipitation in reanalyses, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 47, 2279–2299, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAMC1921.1, 2008.
Boville, B. A., Rasch, P. J., Hack, J. J., and McCaa, J. R.: Representation of clouds and precipitation processes in the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3), J. Climate, 19, 2184–2198, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3749.1, 2006.
Cao, L., Bala, G., and Caldeira, K.: Why is there a short-term increase in global precipitation in response to diminished CO
2 forcing?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L046713, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046713, 2011.
Cao, L., Bala, G., and Caldeira, K.: Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of days to weeks, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 34015–34015, 2012.
Collins, W. D., Bitz, C. M., Blackmon, M. L., Bonan, G. B., Bretherton, C. S., Carton, J. A., Chang, P., Doney, S. C., Hack, J. J., Henderson, T. B., Kiehl, J. T., Large, W. G., McKenna, D. S., Santer, B. D., and Smith, R. D.: The Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), J. Climate, 19, 2122–2143, 2006.
Douville, H., Chauvin, F., Planton, S., Royer, J. F., Salas-Melia, D., and Tyteca, S.: Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols, Clim. Dynam., 20, 45–68, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-002-0259-3, 2002.
Forster, P. M., Andrews, T., Good, P., Gregory, J. M., Jackson, L. S., and Zelinka , M.: Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1139–1150, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50174, 2013.
Gent, P. R., Yeager, S. G., Neale, R. B., Levis, S., and Bailey, D. A.: Improvements in a half degree atmosphere/land version of the CCSM, Clim. Dynam., 34, 819–833, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0614-8, 2010.
Gillett, N. P., Weaver, A. J., Zwiers, F. W., and Wehner, M. F.: Detection of volcanic influence on global precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L12217, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020044, 2004.
Giorgi, F.: A simple equation for regional climate change and associated uncertainty, J. Climate, 21, 1589–1604, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1763.1, 2008.
Gitelman, A. I., Risbey, J. S., Kass, R. E., and Rosen, R. D.: Trends in the surface meridional temperature gradient, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 1243–1246, 1997.
Good, P., Ingram, W., Lambert, F. H., Lowe, J. A., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., Ringer, M. A., and Wu, P.: A step-response approach for predicting and understanding non-linear precipitation changes, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2789–2803, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1571-1, 2012.
Gregory, J. M. and Forster, P. M.: Transient climate response estimated from radiative forcing and observed temperature change, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D23105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010405, 2008.
Gregory, J. M. and Webb, M.: Tropospheric adjustment induces a cloud component in CO
2 forcing, J. Climate, 21, 58–71, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1834.1, 2008.
Gregory, J. M., Ingram, W. J., Palmer, M. A., Jones, G. S., Stott, P. A., Thorpe, R. B., Lowe, J. A., Johns, T. C., and Williams, K. D.: A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L018747, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018747, 2004.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Lacis, A., Koch, D., Tegen, I., Hall, T., Shindell, D., Santer, B., Stone, P., Novakov, T., Thomason, L., Wang, R., Wang, Y., Jacob, D., Hollandsworth, S., Bishop, L., Logan, J., Thompson, A., Stolarski, R., Lean, J., Willson, R., Levitus, S., Antonov, J., Rayner, N., Parker, D., and Christy, J.: Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 107, 4347, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001143, 2002.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Nazarenko, L., Lacis, A., Schmidt, G. A., Russell, G., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S., Bell, N., Cairns, B., Canuto, V., Chandler, M., Cheng, Y., Del Genio, A., Faluvegi, G., Fleming, E., Friend, A., Hall, T., Jackman, C., Kelley, M., Kiang, N., Koch, D., Lean, J., Lerner, J., Lo, K., Menon, S., Miller, R., Minnis, P., Novakov, T., Oinas, V., Perlwitz, J., Perlwitz, J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Shindell, D., Stone, P., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Thresher, D., Wielicki, B., Wong, T., Yao, M., and Zhang, S.: Efficacy of climate forcings, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D18104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005776, 2005.
IPCC: Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p. 996, 2007.
Jonko, A. K., Shell, K. M., Sanderson, B. M., and Danabasoglu, G.: Climate Feedbacks in CCSM3 under Changing CO
2 Forcing. Part I: Adapting the Linear Radiative Kernel Technique to Feedback Calculations for a Broad Range of Forcings, J. Climate, 25, 5260–5272, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00524.1, 2012.
Knutti, R. and Stocker, T. F.: Influence of the thermohaline circulation on projected sea level rise, J. Climate, 13, 1997–2001, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1997:IOTTCO>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Knutti, R., Allen, M. R., Friedlingstein, P., Gregory, J. M., Hegerl, G. C., Meehl, G. A., Meinshausen, M., Murphy, J. M., Plattner, G. K., Raper, S. C. B., Stocker, T. F., Stott, P. A., Teng, H., and Wigley, T. M. L.: A review of uncertainties in global temperature projections over the twenty-first century, J. Climate, 21, 2651–2663, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2119.1, 2008.
Lambert, F. H. and Allen, M. R.: Are Changes in Global Precipitation Constrained by the Tropospheric Energy Budget?, J. Climate, 22, 499–517, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2135.1, 2009.
Lambert, F. H. and Faull, N. E.: Tropospheric adjustment: The response of two general circulation models to a change in insolation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L03701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028124, 2007.
Levitus, S., Antonov, J. I., Wang, J. L., Delworth, T. L., Dixon, K. W., and Broccoli, A. J.: Anthropogenic warming of Earth's climate system, Science, 292, 267–270, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1058154, 2001.
Liu, C., Allan, R. P., and Huffman, G. J.: Co-variation of temperature and precipitation in CMIP5 models and satellite observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L13803, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052093, 2012.
Meehl, G. A., Washington, W. M., Wigley, T. M. L., Arblaster, J. M., and Dai, A.: Solar and greenhouse gas forcing and climate response in the twentieth century, J. Climate, 16, 426–444, 2003.
Meehl, G. A., Washington, W. M., Ammann, C. M., Arblaster, J. M., Wigley, T. M. L., and Tebaldi, C.: Combinations of natural and anthropogenic forcings in twentieth-century climate, J. Climate, 17, 3721–3727, 2004.
Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A. T., Gregory, J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Noda, A., Raper, S. C. B., Watterson, I. G., Weaver, A. J., and Zhao, Z.-C.: Global climate projections, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M. and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
Mitchell, T. D.: Pattern scaling – An examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates, Clim. Change, 60, 217–242, 2003.
Mitchell, T. D. and Hulme, M.: Predicting regional climate change: living with uncertainty, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 23, 57–78, https://doi.org/10.1191/030913399672023346, 1999.
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, 747–756, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823, 2010.
Myhre, G., Highwood, E. J., Shine, K. P., and Stordal, F.: New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2715–2718, 1998.
O'Gorman, P. A., Allan, R. P., Byrne, M. P., and Previdi, M.: Energetic Constraints on Precipitation Under Climate Change, Surv. Geophys., 33, 585–608, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9159-6, 2012.
Rugenstein, M. A. A., Winton, M., Stouffer, R. J., Griffies, S. M., and Hallberg, R.: Northern high latitude heat budget decomposition and transient warming, J. Climate, 26, 609–621, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00695.1, 2013.
Ruosteenoja, K., Tuomenvirta, H., and Jylha, K.: GCM}-based regional temperature and precipitation change estimates for Europe under four {SRES scenarios applying a super-ensemble pattern-scaling method, Clim. Change, 81, 193–208, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9222-3, 2007.
Santer, B. D. and Wigley, T. M. L.: Regional validation of means, variances, and spatial patterns in general-circulation model control runs, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 95, 829–850, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD095iD01p00829, 1990.
Schaller, N., Mahlstein, I., Cermak, J., and Knutti, R.: Analyzing precipitation projections: A comparison of different approaches to climate model evaluation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D014963, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014963, 2011.
Schmidt, H., Alterskjær, K., Bou Karam, D., Boucher, O., Jones, A., Kristjánsson, J. E., Niemeier, U., Schulz, M., Aaheim, A., Benduhn, F., Lawrence, M., and Timmreck, C.: Solar irradiance reduction to counteract radiative forcing from a quadrupling of CO
2: climate responses simulated by four earth system models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 63–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-63-2012, 2012.
Shine, K. P., Cook, J., Highwood, E. J., and Joshi, M. M.: An alternative to radiative forcing for estimating the relative importance of climate change mechanisms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2047, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018141, 2003.
Shiogama, H., Emori, S., Takahashi, K., Nagashima, T., Ogura, T., Nozawa, T., and Takemura, T.: Emission scenario dependency of precipitation on global warming in the MIROC3.2 model, J. Climate, 23, 2404–2417, 2010a.
Shiogama, H., Hanasaki, N., Masutomi, Y., Nagashima, T., Ogura, T., Takahashi, K., Hijioka, Y., Takemura, T., Nozawa, T., and Emori, S.: Emission scenario dependencies in climate change assessments of the hydrological cycle, Clim. Change, 99, 321–329, 2010b.
Stephens, G. L.: Cloud feedbacks in the climate system: A critical review, J. Climate, 18, 237–273, 2005.
Stephens, G. L. and Ellis, T. D.: Controls of Global-Mean Precipitation Increases in Global Warming GCM Experiments, J. Climate, 21, 6141–6155, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2144.1, 2008.
Stouffer, R. J.: Time scales of climate response, J. Climate, 17, 209–217, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0209:TSOCR>2.0.CO;2, 2004.
Sutton, R. T., Dong, B., and Gregory, J. M.: Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028164, 2007.
Trenberth, K. E.: Changes in precipitation with climate change, Clim. Res., 47, 123–138, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953, 2011.
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., and Kiehl, J.: Earth'S Global Energy Budget, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 311–323, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2634.1, 2009.
Watterson, I. G.: Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D12106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009254, 2008.
Wild, M., Grieser, J., and Schaer, C.: Combined surface solar brightening and increasing greenhouse effect support recent intensification of the global land-based hydrological cycle, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034842, 2008.
Zhang, M. H., Lin, W. Y., Klein, S. A., Bacmeister, J. T., Bony, S., Cederwall, R. T., Del Genio, A. D., Hack, J. J., Loeb, N. G., Lohmann, U., Minnis, P., Musat, I., Pincus, R., Stier, P., Suarez, M. J., Webb, M. J., Wu, J. B., Xie, S. C., Yao, M. S., and Zhang, J. H.: Comparing clouds and their seasonal variations in 10 atmospheric general circulation models with satellite measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D005021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005021, 2005.