Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020
Research article
 | 
15 May 2020
Research article |  | 15 May 2020

Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur

Hideo Shiogama, Ryuichi Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Satoru Chatani, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, and Y. T. Eunice Lo

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (02 Feb 2020) by Nicola Maher
AR by Hideo Shiogama on behalf of the Authors (04 Feb 2020)
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (18 Feb 2020) by Nicola Maher
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (28 Feb 2020)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (09 Mar 2020)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (22 Mar 2020) by Nicola Maher
AR by Hideo Shiogama on behalf of the Authors (31 Mar 2020)  Author's response   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (05 Apr 2020) by Nicola Maher
AR by Hideo Shiogama on behalf of the Authors (07 Apr 2020)  Author's response   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (15 Apr 2020) by Nicola Maher
AR by Hideo Shiogama on behalf of the Authors (16 Apr 2020)  Manuscript 
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Short summary
Based on climate simulations, we suggested that historical warming increased chances of drought exceeding the severe 2015 event in equatorial Asia due to El Niño. The fire and fire emissions of CO2/PM2.5 will largely increase at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. If global warming reaches 3 °C, as is expected from the current mitigation policies, chances of fire and CO2/PM2.5 emissions exceeding the 2015 event become approximately 100 %. Future climate policy has to consider these climate change effects.
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