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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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ESD | Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189-203, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189-203, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 21 Mar 2019

Research article | 21 Mar 2019

September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach

Monica Ionita et al.
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Cavalieri, D. J. and Parkinson, C. L.: Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979–2010, The Cryosphere, 6, 881–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-881-2012, 2012. 
Chevallier, M., Salas y Mélia, D., Voldoire, A., Déqué, M., and Garric, G.: Seasonal Forecasts of the Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Extent Using a GCM-Based Seasonal Prediction System, J. Climate, 26, 6092–6104, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00612.1, 2013. 
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Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.
Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high...
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