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ESD | Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 171–187, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 171–187, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 20 Mar 2019

Research article | 20 Mar 2019

Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: predictive skill, added value of regionalization, and ensemble size dependency

Mark Reyers et al.

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Akhtar, N., Brauch, J., and Ahrens, B.: Climate Modeling over the Mediterranean Sea: Impact of Resolution and Ocean Coupling, Clim. Dynam., 51, 933–948, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3570-8, 2017. 
Balmaseda, M. A., Mogensen, K., and Weaver, A. T.: Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 139, 1132–1161, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2063, 2013. 
Benestad, R. E. and Mezghani, A.: On downscaling probabilities for heavy 24-hour precipitation events at seasonal-to-decadal scales, Tellus A, 67, 25954, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.25954, 2015. 
Berg, P., Wagner, S., Kunstmann, S., and Schaedler, G.: High resolution regional climate model simulations for Germany: part I – validation, Clim. Dynam., 40, 401–414, 2013. 
Boer, G. J., Smith, D. M., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G., Kirtman, B., Kushnir, Y., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Msadek, R., Mueller, W. A., Taylor, K. E., Zwiers, F., Rixen, M., Ruprich-Robert, Y., and Eade, R.: The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3751–3777, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016, 2016. 
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In this study, the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system is evaluated. This system has been established to deliver highly resolved forecasts for the timescale of 1 to 10 years for Europe. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for the variables temperature, precipitation, and wind speed is provided, but the performance of the prediction system depends on region, variable, and system generation.
In this study, the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system is evaluated. This system has been...
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