Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate
Summary: Aviation impacts on climate via contrails, which are often clearly visible in the sky. Contrail formation requires particular cold/moist atmospheric conditions at aircraft cruise altitudes. Climate change is expected to change these conditions. Using simulations from several climate models we conclude that, by 2100, the probability of contrail formation could decrease from 11 to 7%, mostly due to changing conditions in the tropics. There is no consensus on the likely change in mid-latitudes.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 555-568, doi:10.5194/esd-6-555-2015, 2015
Climatology of Vb cyclones, physical mechanisms and their impact on extreme precipitation over Central Europe
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 541-553, doi:10.5194/esd-6-541-2015, 2015
Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes
Summary: Emissions due to human activity impact on rainfall. This impact depends on the properties of the gases or particles that are emitted. This paper uses improved understanding of relevant processes to produce a new measure, called the Global Precipitation-change Potential, which allows a direct comparison of the effect of different emissions on global-mean rainfall. Carbon dioxide, in the years following its emission, is shown to be less effective than methane emissions at causing rainfall change.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 525-540, doi:10.5194/esd-6-525-2015, 2015
Gender and climate change in the Indian Himalayas: global threats, local vulnerabilities, and livelihood diversification at the Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 505-523, doi:10.5194/esd-6-505-2015, 2015
Modelling short-term variability in carbon and water exchange in a temperate Scots pine forest
Summary: We compared a process-based ecosystem model (LPJ-GUESS) with EC measurements to test whether observed interannual variability (IAV) in carbon and water fluxes can be reproduced because it is important to understand the driving mechanisms of IAV. We show that the model's mechanistic process representation for photosynthesis at low temperatures and during drought could be improved, but other process representations are still lacking in order to fully reproduce the observed IAV.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 485-503, doi:10.5194/esd-6-485-2015, 2015
Propagation of biases in humidity in the estimation of global irrigation water
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 461-484, doi:10.5194/esd-6-461-2015, 2015
A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447-460, doi:10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem simulations using the ISI-MIP results
Summary: Our study focused on uncertainties in terrestrial C cycling under newly developed scenarios with CMIP5. This study presents first results for examining relative uncertainties of projected terrestrial C cycling in multiple projection components. Only using our new model inter-comparison project data sets enables us to evaluate various uncertainty sources in projection periods. The information on relative uncertainties is useful for climate science and climate change impact evaluation.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 435-445, doi:10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, 2015
Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CE
Summary: We present the first last-millennium simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) including an interactive carbon cycle in both ocean and land component. Volcanic eruptions emerge as the strongest forcing factor for the preindustrial climate and carbon cycle. We estimate the climate-carbon-cycle feedback in CESM to be at the lower bounds of empirical estimates (1.3ppm/°C). The time of emergence for interannual global land and ocean carbon uptake rates are 1947 and 1877, respectively.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411-434, doi:10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015
Policies, economic incentives and the adoption of modern irrigation technology in China
Summary: Econometric analyses results revealed that policy support via subsidies and extension services have played an important role in promoting the adoption of irrigation technology. Strikingly, the present irrigation pricing policy has played significant but contradictory roles in promoting the adoption of different types of irrigation technology. Irrigation pricing showed a positive impact on household-based irrigation technology, and a negative impact on community-based irrigation technology.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 399-410, doi:10.5194/esd-6-399-2015, 2015
On studying relations between time series in climatology
Summary: Connections between time series should be studied with methods developed in time series analysis rather than with cross-correlation coefficients and regression equations. The approach includes time series modeling in both time and frequency domains. Two climatic time series with zero cross correlation are shown to be closely connected at timescales from 2.5 to 10 years and a full time- and frequency-domain description of the system is given for this teleconnection in a climate system.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 389-397, doi:10.5194/esd-6-389-2015, 2015
Migration and global environmental change: methodological lessons from mountain areas of the global South
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 375-388, doi:10.5194/esd-6-375-2015, 2015
Establishment and maintenance of regulating ecosystem services in a dryland area of central Asia, illustrated using the Kökyar Protection Forest, Aksu, NW China, as an example
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 359-373, doi:10.5194/esd-6-359-2015, 2015
The ocean carbon sink – impacts, vulnerabilities and challenges
Summary: Rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations caused by human actions over the past 250 years have raised cause for concern that changes in Earth’s climate system may progress at a much faster pace and larger extent than during the past 20,000 years. Questions that yet need to be answered are what the carbon uptake kinetics of the oceans will be in the future and how the increase in oceanic carbon inventory will affect its ecosystems. Major future ocean carbon research challenges are discussed.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 327-358, doi:10.5194/esd-6-327-2015, 2015
Exploring objective climate classification for the Himalayan arc and adjacent regions using gridded data sources
Summary: A three-step climate classification – input variable selection, principal components analysis and k-means clustering – was applied to a spatial domain covering the Himalayan arc and adjacent plains regions using input data from four global meteorological reanalyses. This revealed a reanalysis ensemble consensus for eight macro-climate zones. Zonal statistics revealed consistent, distinct climatologies. This approach has implications for resource assessments and data set bias characterisations.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 311-326, doi:10.5194/esd-6-311-2015, 2015
Uncertainty in temperature response of current consumption-based emissions estimates
Summary: We quantify uncertainties in estimates of global temperature change from regional and sectoral territorial- and consumption-based emissions. We find that the uncertainties are sensitive to the emission allocations, mix of pollutants, the metric used and its time horizon, and the level of aggregation of the results. Uncertainties in the final results are dominated by metric parameters and emission uncertainties, while the economic data appear to have small uncertainties at the national level.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 287-309, doi:10.5194/esd-6-287-2015, 2015
Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models
Summary: We assessed future changes in high and low flows globally using runoff projections from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Further, we quantified the relative size of uncertainty from GHMs and from GCMs using ANOVA. We show that GCMs are the major contributors to uncertainty overall, but GHMs increase their contribution for low flows and can equal or outweigh GCM uncertainty in snow-dominated areas for both high and low flows.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 267-285, doi:10.5194/esd-6-267-2015, 2015
Do Himalayan treelines respond to recent climate change? An evaluation of sensitivity indicators
Summary: Near-natural Himalayan treelines are usually krummholz treelines, which are relatively unresponsive to climate change. Intense recruitment of treeline trees suggests a great potential for future treeline advance. Competitive abilities of tree seedlings within krummholz thickets and dwarf scrub heaths will be a major source of variation in treeline dynamics. Tree growth-climate relationships show mature treeline trees to be responsive in particular to high pre-monsoon temperature trends.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 245-265, doi:10.5194/esd-6-245-2015, 2015
Farmers' perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: the case of Punjab province, Pakistan
Summary: Based on a farm household survey of 450 farmers, this study examined the adaptation to climate change and factors affecting the adoption of various adaptation measures at the farm level in Pakistan. The study demonstrates that awareness of climate change is widespread in the area, and farmers are adapting their crops to climate variability. However the adaptation process is constrained due to several factors such as lack of information, lack of money, lack of resources and shortage of water.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 225-243, doi:10.5194/esd-6-225-2015, 2015
Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing: an emulator-based approach
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 205-224, doi:10.5194/esd-6-205-2015, 2015