Framing hydropower as green energy: assessing drivers, risks and tensions in the Eastern Himalayas
Summary: Ambitious hydropower plans in the Eastern Himalayas prominently involve the private finance sector. We question the framing of hydropower as green energy, interrogate its links with climate change, and examine its potential for investment and capital accumulation and show a number of serious contradictions. Impacts cannot be simply predicted, controlled or mitigated. More focus on political economic drivers and geo-ecological uncertainties infused with localized understandings is sorely needed.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 195-204, doi:10.5194/esd-6-195-2015, 2015
Local sources of global climate forcing from different categories of land use activities
Summary: The radiative forcing of land use and land cover change activities has recently been computed for a set of forcing agents including long-lived greenhouse gases, short-lived agents (ozone and aerosols), and land surface albedo change. Here we address where the global forcing comes from and what land use activities, such as deforestation or agriculture, contribute the most forcing. We find that changes in forest and crop area can be used to predict the land use radiative forcing in some regions.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 175-194, doi:10.5194/esd-6-175-2015, 2015
Effects of climate variability on savannah fire regimes in West Africa
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 161-174, doi:10.5194/esd-6-161-2015, 2015
The impact of land cover generated by a dynamic vegetation model on climate over east Asia in present and possible future climate
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 147-160, doi:10.5194/esd-6-147-2015, 2015
Decadal regime shift linkage between global marine fish landings and atmospheric planetary wave forcing
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 125-146, doi:10.5194/esd-6-125-2015, 2015
A 12-year high-resolution climatology of atmospheric water transport over the Tibetan Plateau
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 109-124, doi:10.5194/esd-6-109-2015, 2015
Sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River (SuMaRiO) in Northwest China under conditions of climate change
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 83-107, doi:10.5194/esd-6-83-2015, 2015
Large-scale atmospheric forcing and topographic modification of precipitation rates over High Asia – a neural-network-based approach
Summary: In order to assess high-resolution precipitation fields for the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayan Arc, a novel downscaling approach is presented which integrates traditional statistical downscaling and GIS-based terrain parameterization techniques. The approach enables a detailed analysis of the precipitation heterogeinity over the complex target area.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 61-81, doi:10.5194/esd-6-61-2015, 2015
A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate change
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 45-59, doi:10.5194/esd-6-45-2015, 2015
Multi-model climate impact assessment and intercomparison for three large-scale river basins on three continents
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 17-43, doi:10.5194/esd-6-17-2015, 2015
Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime
Summary: This study shows the impact of a changing climate on hydrological drought. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a substantial influence on the way in which drought impact is calculated. The obtained results show that an adaptive threshold approach is the way forward to study the impact of climate change on the identification and characterization of hydrological drought events.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 1-15, doi:10.5194/esd-6-1-2015, 2015
Recent revisions of phosphate rock reserves and resources: a critique
Summary: Phosphate rock is a finite resource required for fertilizer production. Following a debate over the PR depletion timeline, global PR reserves were recently increased 4-fold based mainly on a restatement of Moroccan reserves. We review whether this restatement is methodologically compatible with resource terminology used in major resource classifications, whether resource classification nomenclature is sufficiently understood in the literature, and whether the recent restatements are reliable.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 491-507, doi:10.5194/esd-5-491-2014, 2014
Contrasting roles of interception and transpiration in the hydrological cycle – Part 2: Moisture recycling
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 471-489, doi:10.5194/esd-5-471-2014, 2014
Contrasting roles of interception and transpiration in the hydrological cycle – Part 1: Temporal characteristics over land
Summary: We investigate the temporal characteristics of partitioned evaporation on land, and we present STEAM (Simple Terrestrial Evaporation to Atmosphere Model) -- a hydrological land-surface model developed to provide inputs to moisture tracking. The terrestrial residence timescale of transpiration (days to months) has larger inter-seasonal variation and is substantially longer than that of interception (hours). This can cause differences in moisture recycling, which is investigated more in Part 2.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 441-469, doi:10.5194/esd-5-441-2014, 2014
Continued increase in atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude in the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models
Summary: This paper presents the CMIP5 model predictions on the seasonal characteristics of global carbon cycle. We show a model consensus that the amplitude of this seasonal cycle will increase in the future under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. This is mostly due to enhanced ecosystem productivity in high latitude regions. While the models' ensemble CO2 amplitude increase is close to observation, our results suggest the underlying mechanisms may not be realistic.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 423-439, doi:10.5194/esd-5-423-2014, 2014
Path independence of climate and carbon cycle response over a broad range of cumulative carbon emissions
Summary: Recent studies have identified an approximately proportional relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions. This relationship – referred to as the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) – is useful for climate policy applications. We show that the TCRE is constant for cumulative emissions lower than ~1500GtC but declines for higher cumulative emissions. We also find the TCRE to decrease with increasing emission rate.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 409-422, doi:10.5194/esd-5-409-2014, 2014
Climate impact research: beyond patchwork
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 399-408, doi:10.5194/esd-5-399-2014, 2014
Mechanism for potential strengthening of Atlantic overturning prior to collapse
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 383-397, doi:10.5194/esd-5-383-2014, 2014
Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on deriving anthropogenic warming rates from the instrumental temperature record
Summary: Climate sensitivity can be quantified using measured changes in temperature and forcings. This approach requires disentangling natural and anthropogenic influences on global climate. We focused on the role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in this and show how different AMO characterizations influence the anthropogenic temperature trends (we found they were in between previously published values) and transient climate sensitivity, which we found to be 1.6 (1.0-3.3)°C.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 375-382, doi:10.5194/esd-5-375-2014, 2014
Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability
Summary: Climate change will have impacts on many different sectors of society, but a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable. This paper presents the AHEAD approach, which allows for relating impacts of climate change to 16 dimensions of livelihoods and well-being. Using the example of changes in water availability, the results show how climate change impacts AHEAD. The approach also provides a tool to frame uncertainties from climate models.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 355-373, doi:10.5194/esd-5-355-2014, 2014