Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on deriving anthropogenic warming rates from the instrumental temperature record
Summary: Climate sensitivity can be quantified using measured changes in temperature and forcings. This approach requires disentangling natural and anthropogenic influences on global climate. We focused on the role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in this and show how different AMO characterizations influence the anthropogenic temperature trends (we found they were in between previously published values) and transient climate sensitivity, which we found to be 1.6 (1.0-3.3)°C.
Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability
Summary: Climate change will have impacts on many different sectors of society, but a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable. This paper presents the AHEAD approach, which allows for relating impacts of climate change to 16 dimensions of livelihoods and well-being. Using the example of changes in water availability, the results show how climate change impacts AHEAD. The approach also provides a tool to frame uncertainties from climate models.
Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271-293, 2014 AbstractFinal Revised Paper (PDF, 2807 KB)Discussion Paper (ESDD)
14 Aug 2014
Bimodality of woody cover and biomass across the precipitation gradient in West Africa
Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation
K. Nishina, A. Ito, D. J. Beerling, P. Cadule, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, R. Kahana, E. Kato, R. Keribin, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, T. T. Rademacher, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, N. Vuichard, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 197-209, 2014 AbstractFinal Revised Paper (PDF, 2494 KB)Supplement (2112 KB)Discussion Paper (ESDD)Special Issue
02 Apr 2014
Terminology as a key uncertainty in net land use and land cover change carbon flux estimates
Towards decision-based global land use models for improved understanding of the Earth system
M. D. A. Rounsevell, A. Arneth, P. Alexander, D. G. Brown, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, E. Ellis, J. Finnigan, K. Galvin, N. Grigg, I. Harman, J. Lennox, N. Magliocca, D. Parker, B. C. O'Neill, P. H. Verburg, and O. Young Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 117-137, 2014 AbstractFinal Revised Paper (PDF, 2795 KB)Discussion Paper (ESDD)
26 Feb 2014
The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability