Exploring objective climate classification for the Himalayan arc and adjacent regions using gridded data sources
Summary: A three-step climate classification – input variable selection, principal components analysis and k-means clustering – was applied to a spatial domain covering the Himalayan arc and adjacent plains regions using input data from four global meteorological reanalyses. This revealed a reanalysis ensemble consensus for eight macro-climate zones. Zonal statistics revealed consistent, distinct climatologies. This approach has implications for resource assessments and data set bias characterisations.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 311-326, doi:10.5194/esd-6-311-2015, 2015
Uncertainty in temperature response of current consumption-based emissions estimates
Summary: We quantify uncertainties in estimates of global temperature change from regional and sectoral territorial- and consumption-based emissions. We find that the uncertainties are sensitive to the emission allocations, mix of pollutants, the metric used and its time horizon, and the level of aggregation of the results. Uncertainties in the final results are dominated by metric parameters and emission uncertainties, while the economic data appear to have small uncertainties at the national level.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 287-309, doi:10.5194/esd-6-287-2015, 2015
Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models
Summary: We assessed future changes in high and low flows globally using runoff projections from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Further, we quantified the relative size of uncertainty from GHMs and from GCMs using ANOVA. We show that GCMs are the major contributors to uncertainty overall, but GHMs increase their contribution for low flows and can equal or outweigh GCM uncertainty in snow-dominated areas for both high and low flows.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 267-285, doi:10.5194/esd-6-267-2015, 2015
Do Himalayan treelines respond to recent climate change? An evaluation of sensitivity indicators
Summary: Near-natural Himalayan treelines are usually krummholz treelines, which are relatively unresponsive to climate change. Intense recruitment of treeline trees suggests a great potential for future treeline advance. Competitive abilities of tree seedlings within krummholz thickets and dwarf scrub heaths will be a major source of variation in treeline dynamics. Tree growth-climate relationships show mature treeline trees to be responsive in particular to high pre-monsoon temperature trends.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 245-265, doi:10.5194/esd-6-245-2015, 2015
Farmers' perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: the case of Punjab province, Pakistan
Summary: Based on a farm household survey of 450 farmers, this study examined the adaptation to climate change and factors affecting the adoption of various adaptation measures at the farm level in Pakistan. The study demonstrates that awareness of climate change is widespread in the area, and farmers are adapting their crops to climate variability. However the adaptation process is constrained due to several factors such as lack of information, lack of money, lack of resources and shortage of water.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 225-243, doi:10.5194/esd-6-225-2015, 2015
Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing: an emulator-based approach
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 205-224, doi:10.5194/esd-6-205-2015, 2015
Framing hydropower as green energy: assessing drivers, risks and tensions in the Eastern Himalayas
Summary: Ambitious hydropower plans in the Eastern Himalayas prominently involve the private finance sector. We question the framing of hydropower as green energy, interrogate its links with climate change, and examine its potential for investment and capital accumulation and show a number of serious contradictions. Impacts cannot be simply predicted, controlled or mitigated. More focus on political economic drivers and geo-ecological uncertainties infused with localized understandings is sorely needed.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 195-204, doi:10.5194/esd-6-195-2015, 2015
Local sources of global climate forcing from different categories of land use activities
Summary: The radiative forcing of land use and land cover change activities has recently been computed for a set of forcing agents including long-lived greenhouse gases, short-lived agents (ozone and aerosols), and land surface albedo change. Here we address where the global forcing comes from and what land use activities, such as deforestation or agriculture, contribute the most forcing. We find that changes in forest and crop area can be used to predict the land use radiative forcing in some regions.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 175-194, doi:10.5194/esd-6-175-2015, 2015
Effects of climate variability on savannah fire regimes in West Africa
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 161-174, doi:10.5194/esd-6-161-2015, 2015
The impact of land cover generated by a dynamic vegetation model on climate over east Asia in present and possible future climate
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 147-160, doi:10.5194/esd-6-147-2015, 2015
Decadal regime shift linkage between global marine fish landings and atmospheric planetary wave forcing
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 125-146, doi:10.5194/esd-6-125-2015, 2015
A 12-year high-resolution climatology of atmospheric water transport over the Tibetan Plateau
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 109-124, doi:10.5194/esd-6-109-2015, 2015
Sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River (SuMaRiO) in Northwest China under conditions of climate change
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 83-107, doi:10.5194/esd-6-83-2015, 2015
Large-scale atmospheric forcing and topographic modification of precipitation rates over High Asia – a neural-network-based approach
Summary: In order to assess high-resolution precipitation fields for the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayan Arc, a novel downscaling approach is presented which integrates traditional statistical downscaling and GIS-based terrain parameterization techniques. The approach enables a detailed analysis of the precipitation heterogeinity over the complex target area.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 61-81, doi:10.5194/esd-6-61-2015, 2015
A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate change
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 45-59, doi:10.5194/esd-6-45-2015, 2015
Multi-model climate impact assessment and intercomparison for three large-scale river basins on three continents
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 17-43, doi:10.5194/esd-6-17-2015, 2015
Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime
Summary: This study shows the impact of a changing climate on hydrological drought. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a substantial influence on the way in which drought impact is calculated. The obtained results show that an adaptive threshold approach is the way forward to study the impact of climate change on the identification and characterization of hydrological drought events.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 1-15, doi:10.5194/esd-6-1-2015, 2015
Recent revisions of phosphate rock reserves and resources: a critique
Summary: Phosphate rock is a finite resource required for fertilizer production. Following a debate over the PR depletion timeline, global PR reserves were recently increased 4-fold based mainly on a restatement of Moroccan reserves. We review whether this restatement is methodologically compatible with resource terminology used in major resource classifications, whether resource classification nomenclature is sufficiently understood in the literature, and whether the recent restatements are reliable.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 491-507, doi:10.5194/esd-5-491-2014, 2014
Contrasting roles of interception and transpiration in the hydrological cycle – Part 2: Moisture recycling
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 471-489, doi:10.5194/esd-5-471-2014, 2014
Contrasting roles of interception and transpiration in the hydrological cycle – Part 1: Temporal characteristics over land
Summary: We investigate the temporal characteristics of partitioned evaporation on land, and we present STEAM (Simple Terrestrial Evaporation to Atmosphere Model) -- a hydrological land-surface model developed to provide inputs to moisture tracking. The terrestrial residence timescale of transpiration (days to months) has larger inter-seasonal variation and is substantially longer than that of interception (hours). This can cause differences in moisture recycling, which is investigated more in Part 2.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 441-469, doi:10.5194/esd-5-441-2014, 2014