Journal cover Journal topic
Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.589 IF 4.589
  • IF 5-year<br/> value: 3.696 IF 5-year
    3.696
  • CiteScore<br/> value: 3.94 CiteScore
    3.94
  • SNIP value: 0.995 SNIP 0.995
  • SJR value: 2.742 SJR 2.742
  • IPP value: 3.679 IPP 3.679
  • h5-index value: 21 h5-index 21
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 177-210, 2017
http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/177/2017/
doi:10.5194/esd-8-177-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
16 Mar 2017
Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales Roger N. Jones and James H. Ricketts
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
Climate over decadal timescales, forced by added greenhouse gases, could either change independently of internally generated variability or interact with it. For hypothesis 1, the atmosphere warms gradually, affected by random climate noise. For hypothesis 2, warming is nonlinear and step-like. Two statistical models, step and trend, are used to analyse observed and modelled temperatures; the results are subject to six tests. In conclusion, externally forced warming is step-like at these scales.
Climate over decadal timescales, forced by added greenhouse gases, could either change...
Share