Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Nov 2016
Research article |
| 17 Nov 2016
Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework
Kerstin Engström
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 22362 Lund, Sweden
Stefan Olin
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 22362 Lund, Sweden
Mark D. A. Rounsevell
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Geography Building, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH89XP, UK
Sara Brogaard
Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund University (LUCSUS), Biskopsgatan 5, 22362 Lund, Sweden
Detlef P. van Vuuren
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Postbus 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, the Netherlands
Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, the Netherlands
Peter Alexander
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Geography Building, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH89XP, UK
Dave Murray-Rust
School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh Appleton Tower, 11 Crichton Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9LE, UK
Almut Arneth
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Viewed
Total article views: 4,155 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 15 Mar 2016)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,604 | 1,395 | 156 | 4,155 | 147 | 151 |
- HTML: 2,604
- PDF: 1,395
- XML: 156
- Total: 4,155
- BibTeX: 147
- EndNote: 151
Total article views: 3,515 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 17 Nov 2016)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,277 | 1,086 | 152 | 3,515 | 140 | 143 |
- HTML: 2,277
- PDF: 1,086
- XML: 152
- Total: 3,515
- BibTeX: 140
- EndNote: 143
Total article views: 640 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 15 Mar 2016)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 327 | 309 | 4 | 640 | 7 | 8 |
- HTML: 327
- PDF: 309
- XML: 4
- Total: 640
- BibTeX: 7
- EndNote: 8
Cited
30 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators S. Rabin et al. 10.5194/esd-11-357-2020
- Cross-scale trade-off analysis for sustainable development: linking future demand for animal source foods and ecosystem services provision to the SDGs M. Kozicka et al. 10.1007/s11625-021-01082-y
- Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance K. Engström et al. 10.5194/esd-8-773-2017
- The importance of socio-ecological system dynamics in understanding adaptation to global change in the forestry sector V. Blanco et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.02.066
- Using the Nature Futures Framework as a lens for developing plural land use scenarios for Europe for 2050 Y. Dou et al. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102766
- Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary R. Henry et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0194695
- Compound extreme inundation risk of coastal wetlands caused by climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Yellow River Delta, China X. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.010
- The role of global dietary transitions for safeguarding biodiversity R. Henry et al. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101956
- Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel F. Sallaba et al. 10.5194/esd-8-1191-2017
- Spatial assessment of coastal flood risk due to sea level rise in China’s coastal zone through the 21st century H. Xu et al. 10.3389/fmars.2022.945901
- Estimating Impact Likelihoods from Probabilistic Projections of Climate and Socio-Economic Change Using Impact Response Surfaces S. Fronzek et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4200274
- Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces S. Fronzek et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100466
- High-resolution African population projections from radiative forcing and socio-economic models, 2000 to 2100 N. Boke-Olén et al. 10.1038/sdata.2016.130
- Could consumption of insects, cultured meat or imitation meat reduce global agricultural land use? P. Alexander et al. 10.1016/j.gfs.2017.04.001
- Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide P. Alexander et al. 10.1111/gcb.14110
- Linking ecosystem services provisioning with demand for animal-sourced food: an integrated modeling study for Tanzania D. Enahoro et al. 10.1007/s10113-023-02038-x
- Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China P. Qin et al. 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115694
- Snow cover loss compounding the future economic vulnerability of western China X. Wu et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143025
- MIROC-INTEG-LAND version 1: a global biogeochemical land surface model with human water management, crop growth, and land-use change T. Yokohata et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-4713-2020
- Key species and indicators revealed by an uncertainty analysis of the marine ecosystem model OSMOSE C. Luján et al. 10.3354/meps14465
- Regionalisation of population growth projections in coastal exposure analysis J. Merkens et al. 10.1007/s10584-018-2334-8
- Socioeconomic impacts from coastal flooding in the 21st century China's coastal zone: A coupling analysis between coastal flood risk and socioeconomic development H. Xu et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170187
- Non-optimum temperature-related mortality burden in China: Addressing the dual influences of climate change and urban heat islands D. Zhu et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146760
- Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate‐related science E. Baulenas et al. 10.1002/gch2.202200183
- Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100 Y. Chen et al. 10.1038/s41597-020-0421-y
- The effect of forest owner decision-making, climatic change and societal demands on land-use change and ecosystem service provision in Sweden V. Blanco et al. 10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.12.003
- Global and regional health and food security under strict conservation scenarios R. Henry et al. 10.1038/s41893-021-00844-x
- Linking climate change and socioeconomic development to urban land use simulation: Analysis of their concurrent effects on carbon storage H. Yang et al. 10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.102135
- Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making M. Rounsevell et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.003
- Mapping the shared socio-economic pathways onto the Nature Futures Framework at the global scale P. Alexander et al. 10.1007/s11625-023-01415-z
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators S. Rabin et al. 10.5194/esd-11-357-2020
- Cross-scale trade-off analysis for sustainable development: linking future demand for animal source foods and ecosystem services provision to the SDGs M. Kozicka et al. 10.1007/s11625-021-01082-y
- Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance K. Engström et al. 10.5194/esd-8-773-2017
- The importance of socio-ecological system dynamics in understanding adaptation to global change in the forestry sector V. Blanco et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.02.066
- Using the Nature Futures Framework as a lens for developing plural land use scenarios for Europe for 2050 Y. Dou et al. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102766
- Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary R. Henry et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0194695
- Compound extreme inundation risk of coastal wetlands caused by climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Yellow River Delta, China X. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.010
- The role of global dietary transitions for safeguarding biodiversity R. Henry et al. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101956
- Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel F. Sallaba et al. 10.5194/esd-8-1191-2017
- Spatial assessment of coastal flood risk due to sea level rise in China’s coastal zone through the 21st century H. Xu et al. 10.3389/fmars.2022.945901
- Estimating Impact Likelihoods from Probabilistic Projections of Climate and Socio-Economic Change Using Impact Response Surfaces S. Fronzek et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4200274
- Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces S. Fronzek et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100466
- High-resolution African population projections from radiative forcing and socio-economic models, 2000 to 2100 N. Boke-Olén et al. 10.1038/sdata.2016.130
- Could consumption of insects, cultured meat or imitation meat reduce global agricultural land use? P. Alexander et al. 10.1016/j.gfs.2017.04.001
- Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide P. Alexander et al. 10.1111/gcb.14110
- Linking ecosystem services provisioning with demand for animal-sourced food: an integrated modeling study for Tanzania D. Enahoro et al. 10.1007/s10113-023-02038-x
- Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China P. Qin et al. 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115694
- Snow cover loss compounding the future economic vulnerability of western China X. Wu et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143025
- MIROC-INTEG-LAND version 1: a global biogeochemical land surface model with human water management, crop growth, and land-use change T. Yokohata et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-4713-2020
- Key species and indicators revealed by an uncertainty analysis of the marine ecosystem model OSMOSE C. Luján et al. 10.3354/meps14465
- Regionalisation of population growth projections in coastal exposure analysis J. Merkens et al. 10.1007/s10584-018-2334-8
- Socioeconomic impacts from coastal flooding in the 21st century China's coastal zone: A coupling analysis between coastal flood risk and socioeconomic development H. Xu et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170187
- Non-optimum temperature-related mortality burden in China: Addressing the dual influences of climate change and urban heat islands D. Zhu et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146760
- Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate‐related science E. Baulenas et al. 10.1002/gch2.202200183
- Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100 Y. Chen et al. 10.1038/s41597-020-0421-y
- The effect of forest owner decision-making, climatic change and societal demands on land-use change and ecosystem service provision in Sweden V. Blanco et al. 10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.12.003
- Global and regional health and food security under strict conservation scenarios R. Henry et al. 10.1038/s41893-021-00844-x
- Linking climate change and socioeconomic development to urban land use simulation: Analysis of their concurrent effects on carbon storage H. Yang et al. 10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.102135
- Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making M. Rounsevell et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.003
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 18 Apr 2024
Short summary
The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how much meat and milk we will eat, how much food we will waste and how well farms will be managed. Uncertainties in these factors mean that global cropland could decrease from today's 1500 Mha to only 893 Mha in 2100, which would free land for biofuel production. However, if population rises towards 12 billion and global yields remain low, global cropland could also increase up to 2380 Mha in 2100.
The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint