1Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico
2Independent consultant, Mexico
Received: 02 Jun 2015 – Discussion started: 24 Jul 2015
Abstract. Solar activity (SA) oscillations over the past millennia are analyzed and extrapolated based on reconstructed solar-related records. Here, simple recurrent models of SA signal are applied and tested. The consequent results strongly suggest the following: (a) the existence of multi-millennial ( ∼ 9500-year) scale solar patterns linked with planetary gravitational forcing (PGF), and (b) their persistence, over at least the last glacial–interglacial cycle, but possibly since the Miocene (10.5 Myr ago). This empirical modeling of solar recurrent patterns has also provided a consequent multi-millennial-scale experimental forecast, suggesting a solar decreasing trend toward grand (super) minimum conditions for the upcoming period, AD 2050–2250 (AD 3750–4450). Taking into account the importance of these estimated SA scenarios, a comparison is made with other SA forecasts. In Appendixes A and B, we provide further verification, testing and analysis of solar recurrent patterns since geological eras, and their potential gravitational forcing.
Revised: 23 May 2016 – Accepted: 23 May 2016 – Published: 12 Jul 2016
Sánchez-Sesma, J.: Evidence of cosmic recurrent and lagged millennia-scale patterns and
consequent forecasts: multi-scale responses of solar activity (SA) to
planetary gravitational forcing (PGF), Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 583-595, doi:10.5194/esd-7-583-2016, 2016.